Reading ELAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ELAN free→Reading ELAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ELAN free→NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If ELAN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24 the market pays 25× p/e — above the 13× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $13 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $23–$30. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 80% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.38x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.29 → $0.27 (-7.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 9 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$171.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$390.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,623.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If Elanco meets or exceeds this growth, it shows strong business momentum. It also shows the company can keep growing in a maturing market.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth guidance meets or exceeds 6% organic constant currency growth.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth guidance falls below 4% organic constant currency growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ELAN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
is a copy of the press release, dated May 6, 2026, announcing the results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026, and guidance for the full year and second quarter of 2026, for Elanco Animal Health Incorporated. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$23.00 – $30.00 (median $29.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ELAN Elanco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving 5% to 7% organic constant currency revenue growth for 2026.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: A lower net leverage ratio means better financial health. It shows a better ability to manage debt.
Confirms:Net leverage ratio reported at or below 3.0x.
Disproves:Net leverage ratio is above 3.2x.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth continues. Investors will look for signs of improvement.
Confirms:Revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means Elanco can invest in growth. This is important for future performance.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or stays the same compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: If Credelio Quattro gains more market share, it shows strong product acceptance. This means there is good growth potential in pet health.
Confirms:Credelio Quattro market share increases by more than 3 points from the previous quarter.
Disproves:Credelio Quattro market share gains stall or decline.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal a slowdown in revenue growth for Elanco. This could impact investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Elanco is controlling costs well. This can help overall results.
Confirms:Operating income is better than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is lower or the same as last quarter.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost management and efficiency. This can help make more money.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 55.5%.
Disproves:The adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 55.1%.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is managing costs well. It can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Operating income improves to over $100M in the next quarter.
Disproves:Operating income drops back to negative in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Big changes in foreign exchange rates can change revenue growth expectations. This can affect overall performance.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth increases by about $60 million due to good foreign exchange rates.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth goes down due to unfavorable foreign exchange rates.
is a copy of the press release, dated February 24, 2026, announcing the results of operations for the full year and fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025, and guidance for the full year and first quarter of 2026, for Elanco Animal Health Incorporated. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“Exchange Act”), or otherwise subje…