Reading JAZZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JAZZ free→Reading JAZZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track JAZZ free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $226.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $231 JAZZ trades at 18× p/e — 1.4× the 13× p/e peer median, and above its own 10× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $173 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $224–$307. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 34% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 45.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $6.12 → $6.18 (+0.9% / 30d). 10 raised, 4 cut, 16 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
5 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$99.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$262.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,142.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If zanidatamab gets approved, it could increase revenue. This would support Jazz's pipeline plans.
Confirms:FDA approval of zanidatamab for HER2+ 1L GEA by or before August 25, 2026.
Disproves:FDA denies approval or delays the PDUFA date beyond August 25, 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Advance pipeline and regulatory activities
Failed trial impacts pipeline advancement and regulatory activities.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 25, 2026, Anne O’Riordan, a Class III director whose term expires at the Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (the “Company”) 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, has informed the board of directors (the “Board”) that she will not stand for re-election. Consistent with the Company’s commitment to ongoing board refreshment and board effectiveness, the Bo…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$224.00 – $307.00 (median $242.00) · 12 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on advancing the pipeline and regulatory activities, including the potential launch of zanidatamab in 1L GEA.
Continue efforts to increase revenue growth through strong commercial execution across franchises.
Focus on enhancing cash from operations to support business performance and financial discipline.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Positive operating income shows Jazz is keeping costs low. This is important for making money long-term.
Confirms:Operating income was over $300M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income was under $200M in Q2.
Why it matters: Xywav is a key revenue driver; changes could signal demand shifts in the sleep disorder market.
Confirms:Xywav revenue growth remains above 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Xywav revenue growth drops below 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals effective product launches and market demand.
Confirms:Q2 total revenues grew over 15% compared to last year. This shows strong sales.
Disproves:Q2 total revenues grow less than 10% YoY, suggesting weakening demand.
Why it matters: More cash from operations supports Jazz's investments. This shows the company is improving its financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $450M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $400M in Q2.
Why it matters: Steady sales growth for Modeyso shows it is doing well in the market.
Confirms:Modeyso sales in Q2 exceed $50 million, showing strong demand post-launch.
Disproves:Modeyso sales in Q2 were below $30 million. This shows weak market interest.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact strategy and performance. Investors need to understand how this affects Jazz.
Confirms one read:A new director has been announced. They have relevant experience and a strong record.
Confirms the other:No new director was named. A director with little experience was picked.
and in the Press Release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section or Sections 11 and 12(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The information contained in this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing financial results for the Company for the full year and fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report. The information in this
Other Events. On October 21, 2025, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and Jazz Pharmaceuticals Ireland Ltd., subsidiaries of Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc (collectively, the “Company”) entered into a global settlement agreement (the “Settlement Agreement”) with Avadel CNS Pharmaceuticals LLC and Flamel Ireland Limited, subsidiaries of Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc (collectively, “Avadel”) to settle all claims relating to all disputes between the parties, including the Company’s previously disclosed ongoing p…