Merck & Co. (MRK)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-29
$149.52+2.18%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put MRK beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Pharmaceuticals is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Non-GAAP EPS at least $5.04 in 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 5% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 12%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 66% growth a year, above the roughly 4% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskMRK’s case rests on steady oncology pipeline expansion alongside repeated earnings beats. Revenue growth remains 5% year over year across three reported quarters. Third-quarter 2026 non-GAAP EPS beat consensus by 17.5%. MRK trades at 47× P/E versus the 16× peer median. The market is pricing in more growth than our forecast. The multiple premium could compress if pipeline expansion fails to support expectations. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 10%. Peer multiples imply a price about 66% below where it trades; the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. MRK is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 28 analysts currently covering MRK (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 18 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MRK in the last 4 months.
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Compare MRK with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRK Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Pharmaceuticals — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put MRK next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Raise and narrow full-year revenue guidance
New launches drove a quarterly beat and raised guidance, strengthening the growth outlook.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $149.52
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $149.52.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Raise and narrow full-year revenue guidance
Official 2026 outlook frames revenue and investment ahead of KEYTRUDA LOE, but does not clearly advance tracked guidance objectives.
Advances: Raise and narrow full-year revenue guidance
Keytruda and Winrevair growth supports revenue objectives, though the headline gives no guidance change.
Advances: Increase and narrow full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance
Beating estimates and raising profit outlook materially improve the mixed EPS-guidance objective.
Advances: Advance and expand oncology pipeline
Positive Phase 3 survival results strengthen Merck’s oncology pipeline, though regulatory and commercial impact remains ahead.
Advances: Advance and expand oncology pipeline
Breakthrough cancer vaccine aligns with oncology pipeline expansion.
Lower earnings outlook impacts revenue guidance.
Advances: Advance and expand oncology pipeline
Positive trial results support oncology pipeline advancement.
