Lilly (Eli) (LLY)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-14
$1136.11-0.19%
Close 2026-09-15 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put LLY beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Pharmaceuticals is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — EPS rises to about $36.25 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $35.50-$36.50 vs ~$36.25 target.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 50% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 19%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 44% growth a year, above the roughly 21% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationModerate volatility — typically moves about 1% a day.
View RiskEli Lilly's growth depends on its ability to expand access to obesity medicines. Revenue grew 48% year over year, driven by strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound. It trades at 35× P/E versus a 15× peer median, indicating the market expects more growth than forecast. The market is pricing in full expectations, suggesting a risk of multiple compression. A potential guidance cut could damage credibility, with a 9% miss probability for the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis). This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-15. LLY is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 30 analysts currently covering LLY (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 14 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for LLY in the last 4 months.
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Compare LLY with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Pharmaceuticals — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put LLY next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Positive sentiment on growth aligns with management's objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-15. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $1136.11
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $1136.11.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Expand access to obesity medicines
Obesity access push aligns with growth objectives.
Advances: Expand access to obesity medicines
Broad obesity push aligns with expansion objectives.
Acquisition expands product offerings and aligns with growth strategy.
Setback raises concerns about regulatory approvals and pipeline progress.
Advances: Advance regulatory approvals and pipeline progress
FDA approval supports revenue and EPS guidance.
Advances: Expand access to obesity medicines
Leqembi growth supports expansion of obesity medicines.
Advances: Expand access to obesity medicines
UK clearance boosts access to obesity medicines significantly.
