Lilly (Eli) (LLY)

NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-15

$1257.03+0.43%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lilly (Eli)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

46.63 → 47.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS rises to about $36.25 in 2026	Profit per share rises to about $36.25.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $23 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $7.94 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$36.25. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20267.94 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1965dd6a-8ec2-46b6-8a55-115d0fd9e97c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand access to obesity medicines	A supporting condition in Lilly (Eli)'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain growth in obesity medicine access.	Intact	Obesity medicine access growth stalls or declines	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in all 7 quarters from 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Revenue grew from $12.7B in 2025-Q1 to $23.0B in 2026-Q2, driven by strong volume growth of obesity medicines Mounjaro and Zepbound, with Mounjaro revenue up 91% to $9.9B in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasized expanding access and volume growth, and the financials show delivering against this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Increase manufacturing capacity to meet demand	A supporting condition in Lilly (Eli)'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain manufacturing capacity growth.	Intact	Manufacturing capacity growth stalls or declines	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Make regulatory progress for new products	Manufacturing and regulatory progress support product supply and launches.	Intact	Regulatory approvals slow or face setbacks	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows about $83.5 billion in 2026	Lilly grows sales about 23% next year to $83.5B.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $63 billion in FY26	Revenue: $22.974B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$83.5B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202622,974,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1965dd6a-8ec2-46b6-8a55-115d0fd9e97c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in all 7 quarters from 2024-Q4 through 2026-Q2. Revenue grew from $12.7B in 2025-Q1 to $23.0B in 2026-Q2, driven by strong volume growth of obesity medicines Mounjaro and Zepbound, with Mounjaro revenue up 91% to $9.9B in 2026-Q2. Management consistently emphasized expanding access and volume growth, and the financials show delivering against this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$47.35

$45.20 → $47.35 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$102.67B

$99.32B → $102.67B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$45.20	$99,323,964,478	15 / 19
2026-07-25	$44.87	$98,734,815,490	26 / 25
2026-07-26	$45.20	$99,316,419,358	15 / 19
2026-07-27	$44.87	$98,734,815,490	26 / 25
2026-07-28	$45.20	$99,316,419,358	15 / 19
2026-07-29	$45.20	$99,316,419,358	14 / 18
2026-07-30	$45.06	$99,087,642,390	25 / 24
2026-07-31	$45.18	$99,316,419,358	14 / 18
2026-08-01	$45.18	$99,316,419,358	14 / 18
2026-08-02	$45.18	$99,316,419,358	14 / 18
2026-08-03	$45.08	$99,087,642,390	24 / 24
2026-08-04	$45.08	$99,087,642,390	24 / 24
2026-08-05	$45.08	$99,087,642,390	24 / 24
2026-08-06	$45.18	$99,316,420,562	13 / 18
2026-08-07	$46.17	$100,443,723,119	13 / 17
2026-08-08	$46.18	$100,151,811,390	24 / 24
2026-08-09	$46.18	$100,151,811,390	24 / 24
2026-08-10	$46.17	$100,443,723,119	13 / 17
2026-08-12	$46.56	$100,684,377,230	24 / 25
2026-08-13	$46.17	$100,443,723,119	13 / 17
2026-08-14	$46.17	$100,443,723,119	13 / 17
2026-08-15	$46.17	$100,443,723,119	13 / 17
2026-08-16	$46.17	$100,443,723,119	13 / 18
2026-08-17	$46.17	$100,443,723,119	13 / 18
2026-08-18	$46.17	$100,443,723,119	14 / 18
2026-08-19	$46.17	$100,443,723,119	14 / 18
2026-08-20	$46.69	$101,852,016,083	14 / 20
2026-08-21	$46.69	$101,852,016,083	15 / 20
2026-08-22	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-08-23	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-08-24	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-08-25	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-08-26	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-08-27	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-08-28	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-08-29	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-08-30	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-08-31	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-09-01	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-09-02	$46.62	$101,831,534,006	15 / 20
2026-09-03	$46.64	$101,859,324,324	15 / 20
2026-09-04	$46.64	$101,859,324,324	15 / 20
2026-09-05	$46.64	$101,859,324,324	15 / 20
2026-09-06	$46.64	$101,859,324,324	15 / 20
2026-09-07	$46.64	$101,859,324,324	15 / 20
2026-09-08	$46.64	$101,859,324,324	15 / 20
2026-09-09	$46.64	$101,859,324,324	15 / 20
2026-09-10	$46.64	$101,859,324,324	15 / 20
2026-09-11	$46.64	$101,860,355,717	15 / 20
2026-09-12	$46.63	$101,831,210,416	15 / 20
2026-09-13	$46.63	$101,831,210,416	15 / 20
2026-09-14	$46.63	$101,831,210,416	15 / 20
2026-09-15	$46.63	$101,831,136,598	15 / 20
2026-09-16	$46.70	$101,855,581,042	15 / 20
2026-09-17	$46.70	$101,855,569,931	15 / 20
2026-09-18	$46.70	$101,855,569,931	15 / 20
2026-09-19	$46.73	$101,927,249,005	15 / 20
2026-09-20	$46.73	$101,927,247,494	15 / 20
2026-09-21	$46.73	$101,927,247,494	15 / 20
2026-09-22	$46.73	$101,927,247,494	15 / 20
2026-09-23	$46.92	$102,193,925,272	15 / 20
2026-09-24	$46.92	$102,193,925,272	15 / 20
2026-09-25	$46.92	$102,193,925,272	15 / 20
2026-09-26	$46.92	$102,193,925,272	15 / 20
2026-09-27	$46.92	$102,193,926,783	15 / 20
2026-09-28	$46.92	$102,193,926,783	15 / 20
2026-09-29	$46.89	$102,151,185,787	15 / 20
2026-09-30	$46.89	$102,151,185,787	15 / 20
2026-10-01	$46.89	$102,151,185,787	15 / 20
2026-10-02	$46.89	$102,151,185,787	15 / 20
2026-10-03	$46.89	$102,151,189,490	15 / 20
2026-10-04	$46.89	$102,151,189,490	15 / 20
2026-10-05	$46.89	$102,151,189,490	15 / 20
2026-10-06	$46.89	$102,151,189,490	15 / 20
2026-10-07	$46.89	$102,151,189,490	15 / 20
2026-10-08	$46.90	$102,288,312,482	15 / 20
2026-10-09	$46.93	$102,329,312,482	15 / 20
2026-10-10	$47.21	$102,364,113,005	16 / 20
2026-10-11	$47.21	$102,364,113,005	16 / 20
2026-10-12	$47.21	$102,364,113,005	16 / 20
2026-10-13	$47.25	$102,519,843,809	16 / 20
2026-10-14	$47.24	$102,509,419,370	15 / 20
2026-10-15	$47.35	$102,674,789,741	16 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	24	6	2
2026-06-01	24	5	2
2026-07-01	23	5	2
2026-08-01	24	4	2
2026-09-01	25	4	2
2026-10-01	26	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 8 · prior Aug 6

$1410.00 → $1440.00+2.1%

Morgan StanleyOct 7 · prior Aug 6

$1419.00 → $1430.00+0.8%

GuggenheimSep 18 · prior Jul 13

$1273.00 → $1284.00+0.9%

$0$792.00$1584.00

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS rises to about $36.25 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Expand access to obesity medicinesQualitative condition
Increase manufacturing capacity to meet demandQualitative condition
Make regulatory progress for new productsQualitative condition
Revenue grows about $83.5 billion in 2026Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lilly (Eli) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on expanding its obesity medicine market. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong despite a muted price reaction.

What's priced into Lilly (Eli)

The market currently prices LLY at an expensive valuation compared to its peers, reflecting a premium of 2.34. There is an expectations gap of 0.23, indicating that investors may be anticipating continued strong performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown stable execution with strong revenue growth in obesity medicines, although there are mixed results in expanding manufacturing capacity and advancing regulatory approvals. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but the company must navigate its fragile earnings quality.

What Lilly (Eli) hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on LLY's ability to maintain momentum in the healthcare sector, especially if key competitors continue to perform well. Additionally, any reversal in guidance or a weakening jobs report could negatively impact sentiment.