NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-08-31
Reading LLY? Create a free portfolio, then add this holding for ongoing Reports and tracking. Track it in a free portfolio. No credit card.
Create your account →Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — EPS rises to about $36.25 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $35.50-$36.50 vs ~$36.25 target.
Lilly grows sales about 23% next year to $83.5B. Profit per share rises to about $36.25. New obesity drugs and approvals help growth. Manufacturing and regulatory progress support product supply and launches.
Regulatory and pricing problems could slow new product sales. Growth may fall below 23%. High valuation risks a price drop if growth slows.
The price is about 53% above our fair value near $804. Analysts expect about 23% revenue growth. Our fair value is well below the Street median near $1314.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $23 in FY26
Breaks if: Obesity medicine access growth stalls or declines
Breaks if: Manufacturing capacity growth stalls or declines
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on expanding its obesity medicine market. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial results, but it carries risks due to expensive valuation and fragile earnings quality.
The market has priced in an expensive valuation, reflecting a premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that investors may be anticipating continued strong performance despite recent execution challenges.
Management has shown stability and delivered strong recent financial performance, particularly in obesity medicines. However, the earnings quality is fragile, with a low probability of missing future targets, which could impact confidence.
The thesis hinges on LLY's ability to maintain momentum in the healthcare sector, particularly if peers continue to perform well. Additionally, any negative shifts in guidance or economic indicators could significantly impact the company's credibility and stock performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Revenue growth from obesity medicines is expanding access. This growth helps reinforce the company's position in the market. There are no new threats identified that weaken this view.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Lilly is focused on increasing its manufacturing capacity to meet growing demand.
Breaks if: Regulatory approvals slow or face setbacks
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $63 billion in FY26
Overall, LLY's multi-year view remains cautiously optimistic, but it faces challenges that could affect its trajectory. Not investment advice.
