Reading PFE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. What it hinges on includes the potential for PFE to cut guidance on the next call, which could negatively impact estimates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $26.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 PFE trades at 10× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $25–$30. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, ahead of our forecast of about -16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.60x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.68 → $0.68 (-0.3% / 30d). 6 raised, 8 cut, 18 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 37% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.5% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$81.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$227.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,147.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
The valuation changed, rising to "full." The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Risk remained low, while earnings quality and management were stable. The overall context suggests that the stock's valuation is now seen as higher relative to its peers.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into Pfizer's performance and outlook. It could impact stock valuation.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows revenue grew more than 10% from last year.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows revenue either declined or stayed the same from last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PFE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition”, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing made by us under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing, except as shall be…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$25.00 – $30.00 (median $26.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Pharmaceuticals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PFE Pfizer | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | low |
LLY Lilly (Eli) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JNJ Johnson & Johnson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | low |
MRK Merck & Co. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BMY Bristol Myers Squibb | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Pfizer aims to achieve $5.7 billion in net cost savings by 2027 through targeted savings initiatives.
Pfizer reaffirms its full-year 2026 revenue guidance in the range of $59.5 to $62.5 billion.
Pfizer reaffirms its full-year 2026 EPS guidance in the range of $2.80 to $3.00.
Why it matters: Reaffirming revenue guidance shows management believes in growth. This affects how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Pfizer confirms its revenue guidance for 2026. This is the same as before.
Confirms the other:Pfizer lowers or withdraws its 2026 revenue guidance.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it could hurt Pfizer's performance. It signals broader industry challenges.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median for two consecutive months.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median for the same period.
Why it matters: Seagen's revenue is key to Pfizer's growth plans in oncology. Strong performance could boost Pfizer's financial outlook.
Confirms:Seagen expects to make over $2.2 billion in revenue for 2023. This shows strong growth.
Disproves:Seagen's revenue drops below $2 billion. This suggests weaker performance than expected.
Why it matters: Achieving cost savings can improve profit margins. It is crucial for financial health.
Confirms:Management reports progress towards the $5.7B cost savings target in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management says progress on cost savings is slower than expected.
Why it matters: Cost savings are important for Pfizer's finances. Progress shows good management.
Confirms:Pfizer reports achieving over $1 billion in cost savings by the end of 2025.
Disproves:Pfizer fails to report any significant cost savings progress by 2025.
Why it matters: Reaffirming EPS guidance signals strong earnings potential. It can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management says the full-year 2026 EPS guidance will not change in the next call.
Disproves:Management lowers or withdraws the full-year 2026 EPS guidance.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition”, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing made by us under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing, except as shall be…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition”, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing made by us under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing, except as shall be…
Results of Other Events On November 13, 2025, Pfizer Inc. (“Pfizer” or the “Company”) completed the previously announced acquisition of Metsera, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Metsera”), pursuant to the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of September 21, 2025, as amended by Amendment No. 1 to the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of November 7, 2025, by and among the Company, Metsera and Mayfair Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (as a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition”, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any filing made by us under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, regardless of any general incorporation language in any such filing, except as shall be…