Pfizer (PFE)

Q: What's priced into Pfizer (PFE) stock?

The market currently prices Pfizer as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is a low level of fragility in the stock, indicating that the current valuation is justified.

Q: What does the Pfizer (PFE) outlook hinge on?

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on cost savings. Additionally, performance relative to sector bellwethers and macroeconomic conditions, such as job growth, will be crucial.

NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-15

$29.58+0.48%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Pfizer’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.90 → 2.90 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

5 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted diluted EPS between $2.80 and $3.00 in 2026	Adjusted EPS is expected between $2.80 and $3.00.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS falls below $2.80 or above $3.00	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Pfizer raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance by $500 million at the midpoint from $59.5 billion to $60.5 billion while reaffirming adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3.00. Revenue grew from $13.7B in 2026-Q1 to $15.0B in 2026-Q2 quarterly, reflecting operational growth. The trajectory matches management's repeated reaffirmations and upward revision, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain dividend payments and potential share repurchases	A supporting condition in Pfizer's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain dividend growth and share repurchase flexibility.	Intact	Dividend payments decline materially or share repurchase authorization withdrawn	Dividends paid: $2.445B FY2025-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Sustain dividend growth and share repurchase flexibility. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source date unavailable2,445,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2025-Q4 · Period ending Dec 31, 2025 Source: company_balance_sheet. Reference: 2025-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Pfizer consistently emphasizes a balanced capital allocation strategy focused on reinvestment, dividend growth, and potential share repurchases after de-levering. The company returned $4.9 billion in dividends in first half 2026 and maintains $3.3 billion in share repurchase authorization with no repurchases completed in 2026. The trajectory shows ongoing delivery on dividend growth and prudent capital deployment. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Achieve $5.7 billion net cost savings by end of 2027	The company targets $5.7 billion in cost savings by 2027.	Intact	Net cost savings fall short of $5.7 billion by end of 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Pfizer has consistently targeted approximately $5.7 billion in net cost savings by end of 2027, with $4.5 billion expected by end of 2025 and additional $2.5 billion productivity savings announced in 2026-Q2. Operational expenses showed modest decreases in SI&A expenses over recent quarters, indicating ongoing delivery. The trajectory is delivering with expanded cost savings initiatives. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Manage risks from drug pricing policies in key markets	A supporting condition in Pfizer's published investment case. The stated target is No material revenue impact from pricing policies.	Intact	Material revenue declines due to drug pricing policy changes	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full-year 2026 revenue in range $59.5 to $62.5 billion	Pfizer keeps its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of up to $62.5 billion.	Under Pressure	Full-year revenue falls below $59.5 billion or above $62.5 billion	Revenue: $15.034B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $59.5 billion and <= $62.5 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202615,034,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 28, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1a154679-9c26-4592-ac1e-be8ec42848b1. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Pfizer raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance by $500 million at the midpoint from $59.5 billion to $60.5 billion while reaffirming adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3.00. Revenue grew from $13.7B in 2026-Q1 to $15.0B in 2026-Q2 quarterly, reflecting operational growth. The trajectory matches management's repeated reaffirmations and upward revision, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.90

$2.83 → $2.90 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$59.79B

$59.20B → $59.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.83	$59,201,610,900	24 / 23
2026-07-25	$2.83	$59,373,166,570	24 / 24
2026-07-26	$2.84	$59,300,515,971	13 / 17
2026-07-27	$2.84	$59,300,515,971	13 / 17
2026-07-28	$2.83	$59,373,166,570	24 / 24
2026-07-29	$2.83	$59,366,541,570	24 / 24
2026-07-30	$2.83	$59,366,541,570	24 / 24
2026-07-31	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-01	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-02	$2.83	$59,366,541,570	23 / 24
2026-08-03	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-04	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-05	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-06	$2.83	$59,366,541,570	23 / 24
2026-08-07	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-08	$2.88	$59,760,329,810	23 / 23
2026-08-09	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-10	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-12	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-13	$2.89	$59,852,187,580	25 / 25
2026-08-14	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-15	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-16	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-17	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-18	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-19	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-20	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-21	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-22	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-23	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-24	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-25	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-26	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-27	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-28	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-29	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-30	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-31	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-09-01	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-09-02	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-09-03	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-04	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-08	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-09	$2.89	$59,719,642,722	14 / 18
2026-09-10	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-11	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-12	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-13	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-14	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-15	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-16	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-17	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-18	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-19	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-20	$2.90	$59,762,921,340	14 / 18
2026-09-21	$2.90	$59,762,921,340	14 / 18
2026-09-22	$2.90	$59,762,921,340	14 / 18
2026-09-23	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-24	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-25	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-26	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-09-27	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-09-28	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-09-29	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-09-30	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-10-01	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-10-02	$2.90	$59,762,919,657	14 / 18
2026-10-03	$2.90	$59,762,920,117	14 / 18
2026-10-04	$2.90	$59,762,920,117	14 / 18
2026-10-05	$2.90	$59,762,920,117	14 / 18
2026-10-06	$2.90	$59,762,920,117	14 / 18
2026-10-07	$2.90	$59,790,528,813	14 / 18
2026-10-08	$2.90	$59,800,054,991	14 / 18
2026-10-09	$2.90	$59,824,337,139	14 / 18
2026-10-10	$2.90	$59,824,337,139	14 / 18
2026-10-11	$2.90	$59,822,925,728	14 / 18
2026-10-12	$2.90	$59,822,925,728	14 / 18
2026-10-13	$2.90	$59,799,382,926	14 / 18
2026-10-14	$2.90	$59,789,252,492	13 / 17
2026-10-15	$2.90	$59,789,252,492	13 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	11	15	3
2026-06-01	11	16	3
2026-07-01	11	16	2
2026-08-01	10	16	2
2026-09-01	10	16	2
2026-10-01	10	16	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 8

$28.00New observation · no comparable prior

ScotiabankOct 6

$33.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$18.15$36.30

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted diluted EPS between $2.80 and $3.00 in 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain dividend payments and potential share repurchasesDividends paid: $2.445B
Achieve $5.7 billion net cost savings by end of 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Manage risks from drug pricing policies in key marketsQualitative condition
Full-year 2026 revenue in range $59.5 to $62.5 billionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Pfizer outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth and cost savings. The current thesis state is stable, with management reaffirming financial guidance and a commitment to research and development.

What's priced into Pfizer

The market currently prices Pfizer as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. There is a low level of fragility in the stock, indicating that the current valuation is justified.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, supported by management's focus on cost savings and operational growth. However, there is a moderate risk, as recent financial performance has been neutral and industry peers have faced challenges.

What Pfizer hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute on cost savings. Additionally, performance relative to sector bellwethers and macroeconomic conditions, such as job growth, will be crucial.

Bottom line

Overall, Pfizer appears to be in a solid position for the next 1 to 3 years, but it will need to navigate potential risks carefully. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.90

$2.83 → $2.90 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$59.79B

$59.20B → $59.79B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.83	$59,201,610,900	24 / 23
2026-07-25	$2.83	$59,373,166,570	24 / 24
2026-07-26	$2.84	$59,300,515,971	13 / 17
2026-07-27	$2.84	$59,300,515,971	13 / 17
2026-07-28	$2.83	$59,373,166,570	24 / 24
2026-07-29	$2.83	$59,366,541,570	24 / 24
2026-07-30	$2.83	$59,366,541,570	24 / 24
2026-07-31	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-01	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-02	$2.83	$59,366,541,570	23 / 24
2026-08-03	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-04	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-05	$2.84	$59,293,602,928	13 / 18
2026-08-06	$2.83	$59,366,541,570	23 / 24
2026-08-07	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-08	$2.88	$59,760,329,810	23 / 23
2026-08-09	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-10	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-12	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-13	$2.89	$59,852,187,580	25 / 25
2026-08-14	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	13 / 17
2026-08-15	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-16	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-17	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-18	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-19	$2.87	$59,491,238,038	14 / 18
2026-08-20	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-21	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-22	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-23	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-24	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-25	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-26	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-27	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-28	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-29	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-30	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-08-31	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-09-01	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-09-02	$2.89	$59,719,626,044	14 / 18
2026-09-03	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-04	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-05	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-06	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-07	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-08	$2.89	$59,719,641,452	14 / 18
2026-09-09	$2.89	$59,719,642,722	14 / 18
2026-09-10	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-11	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-12	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-13	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-14	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-15	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-16	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-17	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-18	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-19	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-20	$2.90	$59,762,921,340	14 / 18
2026-09-21	$2.90	$59,762,921,340	14 / 18
2026-09-22	$2.90	$59,762,921,340	14 / 18
2026-09-23	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-24	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-25	$2.90	$59,762,908,296	14 / 18
2026-09-26	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-09-27	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-09-28	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-09-29	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-09-30	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-10-01	$2.90	$59,762,920,927	14 / 18
2026-10-02	$2.90	$59,762,919,657	14 / 18
2026-10-03	$2.90	$59,762,920,117	14 / 18
2026-10-04	$2.90	$59,762,920,117	14 / 18
2026-10-05	$2.90	$59,762,920,117	14 / 18
2026-10-06	$2.90	$59,762,920,117	14 / 18
2026-10-07	$2.90	$59,790,528,813	14 / 18
2026-10-08	$2.90	$59,800,054,991	14 / 18
2026-10-09	$2.90	$59,824,337,139	14 / 18
2026-10-10	$2.90	$59,824,337,139	14 / 18
2026-10-11	$2.90	$59,822,925,728	14 / 18
2026-10-12	$2.90	$59,822,925,728	14 / 18
2026-10-13	$2.90	$59,799,382,926	14 / 18
2026-10-14	$2.90	$59,789,252,492	13 / 17
2026-10-15	$2.90	$59,789,252,492	13 / 17

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings