Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$214.00-0.30%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Jazz Pharmaceuticals’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

25.77 → 25.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.24B
EPS	—	6.492
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.72B
EPS	—	24.555
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	4.99B
EPS	—	25.941

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations above $400 million	Cash from operations rose sharply to $408 million.	Intact	cash from operations falls below $300 million next year	Cash from operations: $415.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $400 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026415,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 90% in FY26	A primary condition in Jazz Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is ~90% gross margin.	Intact	gross margin falls below 85% in FY26	Gross margin: 90.37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~90% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202690.366631 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Advance pipeline and regulatory activities including zanidatamab launch	A primary condition in Jazz Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is Successful zanidatamab launch and regulatory progress in 2026.	Intact	Major pipeline setbacks or launch failures occur in 2026	Qualitative: Ziihera Phase III success & approval vs 2026 launch target Ziihera Phase III interim results positive; first-line HER2 approval achieved; rare-disease push gaining pace. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters including 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q2 and the 2026-09-15 press release. Jazz Pharmaceuticals advanced pipeline with zanidatamab sBLA Priority Review in 2026-Q1 and completed acquisition of Actio Biosciences in 2026-Q2 to add ABS-1230 for KCNT1 epilepsy. Revenue grew from $897.8M in 2025-Q1 to $1,208.3M in 2026-Q2, reflecting growth alongside pipeline progress. The trajectory shows delivering on advancing pipeline and regulatory activities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of at least 6% per year	A primary condition in Jazz Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 15.55% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202615.548067 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: df47dfaa-aaaa-47af-8c7a-0a9be2dcec1e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters including 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Revenue grew from $897.8M in 2025-Q1 to $1.2B in 2026-Q2, with 19% YoY growth in 2026-Q1 and 10% YoY growth in 2025-Q4. Management emphasized disciplined execution driving this growth. The trajectory is delivering consistent revenue growth aligned with stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$25.94

$25.72 → $25.94 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.99B

$4.84B → $4.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$25.72	$4,841,191,020	17 / 19
2026-07-25	$25.85	$4,833,231,596	10 / 15
2026-07-26	$25.72	$4,841,191,020	17 / 19
2026-07-27	$25.72	$4,841,191,020	17 / 19
2026-07-28	$25.85	$4,833,231,596	10 / 15
2026-07-29	$25.72	$4,841,191,020	17 / 19
2026-07-30	$25.72	$4,841,191,020	17 / 19
2026-07-31	$25.72	$4,841,191,020	17 / 19
2026-08-01	$25.85	$4,833,226,041	10 / 15
2026-08-02	$25.72	$4,841,191,020	17 / 19
2026-08-03	$25.72	$4,841,191,020	17 / 19
2026-08-04	$25.72	$4,841,191,020	17 / 19
2026-08-05	$25.95	$4,927,614,415	10 / 15
2026-08-06	$25.95	$4,927,614,415	10 / 15
2026-08-07	$25.92	$4,980,061,382	10 / 15
2026-08-08	$25.80	$4,972,674,640	17 / 19
2026-08-09	$25.80	$4,972,674,640	17 / 19
2026-08-10	$25.80	$4,972,674,640	17 / 19
2026-08-12	$25.92	$4,980,061,382	10 / 15
2026-08-13	$25.77	$4,973,592,360	17 / 19
2026-08-14	$25.92	$4,980,061,382	10 / 15
2026-08-15	$25.92	$4,980,061,382	10 / 15
2026-08-16	$25.92	$4,980,061,382	10 / 15
2026-08-17	$25.92	$4,980,061,382	10 / 15
2026-08-18	$25.92	$4,980,061,382	10 / 15
2026-08-19	$25.92	$4,980,061,382	10 / 15
2026-08-20	$25.89	$4,994,025,307	11 / 15
2026-08-21	$25.89	$4,994,025,307	11 / 15
2026-08-22	$25.89	$4,994,025,307	11 / 15
2026-08-23	$25.89	$4,994,025,307	11 / 15
2026-08-24	$25.89	$4,994,025,307	11 / 15
2026-08-25	$25.89	$4,994,025,307	11 / 15
2026-08-26	$25.93	$4,997,032,919	11 / 15
2026-08-27	$25.93	$4,997,032,919	11 / 15
2026-08-28	$25.93	$4,997,032,919	11 / 15
2026-08-29	$25.94	$4,998,007,971	11 / 15
2026-08-30	$25.89	$4,998,007,971	11 / 15
2026-08-31	$25.89	$4,998,007,971	11 / 15
2026-09-01	$25.89	$4,998,007,971	11 / 15
2026-09-02	$25.89	$4,998,007,971	11 / 15
2026-09-03	$25.89	$4,998,007,971	11 / 15
2026-09-04	$25.90	$4,998,284,666	11 / 15
2026-09-05	$25.90	$4,998,284,666	11 / 15
2026-09-06	$25.90	$4,998,284,666	11 / 15
2026-09-07	$25.90	$4,998,284,666	11 / 15
2026-09-08	$25.90	$4,998,284,666	11 / 15
2026-09-09	$25.90	$4,998,284,666	11 / 15
2026-09-10	$25.87	$4,998,284,666	11 / 15
2026-09-11	$25.87	$4,998,007,971	11 / 15
2026-09-12	$25.90	$4,999,726,001	11 / 15
2026-09-13	$25.90	$4,999,726,001	11 / 15
2026-09-14	$25.90	$4,999,726,001	11 / 15
2026-09-15	$25.90	$4,999,726,001	11 / 15
2026-09-16	$25.77	$4,999,726,001	11 / 15
2026-09-17	$25.77	$4,999,750,334	11 / 15
2026-09-18	$25.77	$4,999,750,334	11 / 15
2026-09-19	$25.77	$4,999,750,334	11 / 15
2026-09-20	$25.77	$4,999,750,334	11 / 15
2026-09-21	$25.77	$4,999,750,334	11 / 15
2026-09-22	$25.77	$4,999,750,334	11 / 15
2026-09-23	$25.77	$4,999,750,334	11 / 15
2026-09-24	$25.77	$4,999,750,334	11 / 15
2026-09-25	$25.74	$4,986,530,001	11 / 16
2026-09-26	$25.74	$4,986,530,001	11 / 16
2026-09-27	$25.74	$4,986,530,001	11 / 16
2026-09-28	$25.74	$4,986,530,001	11 / 16
2026-09-29	$25.74	$4,986,530,001	11 / 16
2026-09-30	$25.74	$4,986,531,920	11 / 16
2026-10-01	$25.90	$4,990,950,162	11 / 16
2026-10-02	$25.90	$4,990,950,162	11 / 16
2026-10-03	$25.90	$4,990,950,162	11 / 16
2026-10-04	$25.90	$4,990,950,162	11 / 16
2026-10-05	$25.90	$4,990,950,162	11 / 16
2026-10-06	$25.90	$4,990,950,162	11 / 16
2026-10-07	$25.92	$4,991,491,631	11 / 16
2026-10-08	$25.93	$4,992,541,631	11 / 16
2026-10-09	$25.91	$4,991,591,631	11 / 16
2026-10-10	$25.91	$4,991,591,631	11 / 16
2026-10-11	$25.82	$4,985,256,780	11 / 16
2026-10-12	$25.82	$4,985,256,780	11 / 16
2026-10-13	$25.82	$4,985,256,780	11 / 16
2026-10-14	$26.04	$4,985,256,780	11 / 16
2026-10-15	$26.04	$4,985,256,780	11 / 16
2026-10-16	$26.04	$4,985,256,780	11 / 16
2026-10-17	$26.04	$4,985,256,780	11 / 16
2026-10-18	$26.06	$4,987,645,917	11 / 16
2026-10-19	$26.06	$4,987,645,917	11 / 16
2026-10-20	$26.06	$4,987,645,917	11 / 16
2026-10-21	$26.06	$4,989,624,017	11 / 16
2026-10-22	$25.94	$4,986,674,017	11 / 16
2026-10-23	$25.94	$4,986,674,017	11 / 16
2026-10-24	$25.94	$4,986,674,017	11 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	17	2	1
2026-06-01	17	1	1
2026-07-01	18	1	1
2026-08-01	18	2	1
2026-09-01	20	2	1
2026-10-01	20	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 21 · prior Aug 26

$322.00 → $314.00-2.5%

RBC CapitalOct 8 · prior Aug 28

$299.00 → $296.00-1.0%

Truist FinancialOct 7 · prior Aug 26

$281.00 → $286.00+1.8%

$0$177.10$354.20

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations above $400 millionCash from operations: $415.7M
Gross margin near 90% in FY26Gross margin: 90.37%
Revenue growth of at least 6% per yearPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-20.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Jazz Pharmaceuticals outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a pharmaceutical growth and pipeline story, with recent financial performance rated strong and earnings quality robust. The long-term thesis is intact, though management is rated volatile and the evidence snapshot gives the overall view medium confidence.

What's priced into Jazz Pharmaceuticals

The valuation evidence is mixed: JAZZ is described as cheap versus peers, but the model also shows a 56% premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.27. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to clearly excessive expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results face a watch-level risk: the estimated miss probability is 39%, with recent peer misses cited as a concern. Over the multi-year view, revenue growth and pipeline activity have been on track, including zanidatamab regulatory progress and the Actio Biosciences acquisition; the recent revenue trend is strong.

What Jazz Pharmaceuticals hinges on

A key risk is whether JAZZ can sustain its raised guidance, since a reversal could weaken confidence in management. The outlook also depends on broader economic and Healthcare-sector signals, including employment trends and results from sector peers such as VRTX, REGN, and MRNA.