Elanco (ELAN)

NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.52-0.75%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Elanco’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.28 → 1.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$1.2B–$1.22B	—
EPS	$0.19–$0.22non-GAAP	—
EBITDA	$200M–$215Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.19B
EPS	—	0.186
FY 2026 · Annual
Raising innovation revenue	$1.25B	—
Raising revenue	$5.09B–$5.14B	—
Revenue	—	5.14B
EPS	—	1.139
Gross margin	55.2%–55.6%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	5.42B
EPS	—	1.279

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase operating income through cost management	Profit improves with operating income rising from $60 million to $87 million.	Improving	Operating income falls below $60 million in FY26-Q1	Operating income: $109M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $87 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026109,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve cash flow from operations to support growth	Cash flow from operations turned positive, supporting growth and investments.	Improving	Cash flow from operations falls below $0 in FY26-Q1	Cash from operations: $277M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash flow from operations >= $13 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026277,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operations increased from $108 million in 2025-Q4 to $277 million in 2026-Q2. The net leverage ratio improved from 3.6x at 2025 year-end to 3.1x at 2026-Q2. Management's focus on accelerating free cash flow and deleveraging is reflected in these improving financial metrics, indicating delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve 5% to 7% organic constant currency revenue growth	A primary condition in Elanco's published investment case. The stated target is 5% to 7% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.144 billion in 2025-Q4 to $1.368 billion in 2026-Q2, with organic constant currency growth of 8% in 2026-Q2. Full year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $5.09 billion to $5.14 billion, reflecting 6% to 7% organic growth. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with management's stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.28

$1.20 → $1.28 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.42B

$5.34B → $5.42B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.20	$5,338,921,951	9 / 11
2026-07-25	$1.20	$5,325,075,800	14 / 13
2026-07-26	$1.20	$5,325,075,800	14 / 13
2026-07-27	$1.20	$5,325,075,800	14 / 13
2026-07-28	$1.20	$5,325,075,800	14 / 13
2026-07-29	$1.20	$5,338,921,951	9 / 11
2026-07-30	$1.20	$5,320,466,160	14 / 13
2026-07-31	$1.20	$5,320,466,160	14 / 13
2026-08-01	$1.20	$5,334,312,314	9 / 11
2026-08-02	$1.20	$5,320,466,160	14 / 13
2026-08-03	$1.20	$5,334,312,314	9 / 11
2026-08-04	$1.20	$5,320,466,160	14 / 13
2026-08-05	$1.20	$5,320,466,160	14 / 13
2026-08-06	$1.20	$5,320,466,160	14 / 13
2026-08-07	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-08	$1.25	$5,369,183,480	15 / 13
2026-08-09	$1.25	$5,369,183,480	15 / 13
2026-08-10	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-11	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-12	$1.26	$5,394,080,300	15 / 13
2026-08-13	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-14	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-15	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-16	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-17	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-18	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-19	$1.23	$5,375,611,493	9 / 11
2026-08-20	$1.26	$5,401,495,473	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$1.26	$5,401,495,473	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$1.27	$5,401,495,473	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$1.27	$5,401,495,473	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$1.27	$5,401,495,473	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$1.27	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 10
2026-09-27	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 10
2026-09-28	$1.28	$5,404,572,396	9 / 10
2026-09-29	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-09-30	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-01	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-02	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-03	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-04	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-05	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-06	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-07	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-08	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-09	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-10	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-11	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-12	$1.28	$5,402,356,429	9 / 10
2026-10-13	$1.28	$5,402,357,770	9 / 10
2026-10-14	$1.28	$5,402,357,770	9 / 10
2026-10-15	$1.28	$5,402,357,770	9 / 10
2026-10-16	$1.28	$5,402,357,770	10 / 11
2026-10-17	$1.28	$5,402,357,770	10 / 11
2026-10-18	$1.28	$5,418,751,259	9 / 10
2026-10-19	$1.28	$5,418,751,259	9 / 10
2026-10-20	$1.28	$5,418,751,259	9 / 10
2026-10-21	$1.28	$5,417,776,260	9 / 10
2026-10-22	$1.28	$5,417,776,260	9 / 10
2026-10-23	$1.28	$5,417,776,260	9 / 10
2026-10-24	$1.28	$5,417,776,260	9 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	2
2026-06-01	16	2
2026-07-01	16	1
2026-08-01	16	2
2026-09-01	15	2
2026-10-01	15	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 20

$24.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$13.20$26.40

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase operating income through cost managementOperating income: $109M
Improve cash flow from operations to support growthCash from operations: $277M
Achieve 5% to 7% organic constant currency revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 6, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Elanco outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ELAN is a growth-and-execution story with improving cash flow and lower debt, rather than a turnaround. The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and progress on management’s stated priorities, though recent financial performance is rated neutral overall.

What's priced into Elanco

The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a very small expectations gap in the evidence. That suggests the market already recognizes the business’s growth and execution progress, while the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and has low fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show revenue growth, wider adjusted EBITDA margins, higher operating cash flow, and lower leverage, alongside raised 2026 revenue guidance. The main risk is a reversal in guidance, which could damage management credibility; the snapshot also notes that ELAN operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has had a deep miss in its recent history.

What Elanco hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth, margin improvement, and progress toward the savings and cash-flow goals. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while continued earnings strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.