Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)

NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-10-15

$59.75-1.35%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Bristol Myers Squibb’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.55 → 6.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
EPS near $6.20	A primary condition in Bristol Myers Squibb's published investment case. The stated target is $6.20.	Intact	EPS falls below $5.90 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.62 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $6.20. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261.62 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a37b13c7-534a-48fc-8738-fe04abebd8b6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 69.5%	A supporting condition in Bristol Myers Squibb's published investment case. The stated target is 69.5%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 67% in FY26	Gross margin: 71.28% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 69.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202671.27881 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Gross margin on a GAAP basis was 70.2% in 2026-Q1 and 71.3% in 2026-Q2, slightly above the 69%-70% guidance range. Management has consistently maintained this gross margin target, and the actual margins show stable to slightly improving performance, delivering on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Successful drug development and partnerships	The company benefits from strong drug pipelines and partnerships.	Intact	major clinical trial failures or partnership dissolutions	Qualitative: 3 positive Phase 3/late-stage trial results vs target of sustained progress Multiple late-stage trial successes reported in Oct 2026, including admilparant Phase 3 goal met and lung disease drug success. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Annual revenue near $46.6 billion	A primary condition in Bristol Myers Squibb's published investment case. The stated target is ~$46.6B.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $45 billion in FY26	Revenue: $12.973B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$46.6B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202612,973,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a37b13c7-534a-48fc-8738-fe04abebd8b6. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.62

$6.20 → $6.62 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$48.50B

$46.40B → $48.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.20	$46,395,652,990	25 / 24
2026-07-25	$6.20	$46,395,652,990	25 / 24
2026-07-26	$6.20	$46,395,652,990	25 / 24
2026-07-27	$6.20	$46,395,652,990	25 / 24
2026-07-28	$6.20	$46,395,652,990	25 / 24
2026-07-29	$6.19	$46,375,122,870	26 / 25
2026-07-30	$6.19	$46,375,122,870	26 / 25
2026-07-31	$6.19	$46,375,122,870	26 / 25
2026-08-01	$6.34	$47,135,651,632	15 / 19
2026-08-02	$6.44	$47,683,567,682	16 / 18
2026-08-03	$6.47	$47,812,196,860	26 / 24
2026-08-04	$6.47	$47,812,196,860	26 / 24
2026-08-05	$6.53	$48,110,688,150	28 / 24
2026-08-06	$6.54	$48,129,740,630	28 / 25
2026-08-07	$6.44	$47,683,567,682	16 / 18
2026-08-08	$6.55	$48,129,756,200	28 / 25
2026-08-09	$6.55	$48,129,756,200	28 / 25
2026-08-10	$6.55	$48,129,756,200	28 / 25
2026-08-11	$6.44	$47,683,567,682	16 / 18
2026-08-12	$6.55	$48,129,756,200	28 / 25
2026-08-13	$6.55	$48,129,756,200	28 / 25
2026-08-14	$6.44	$47,683,567,682	16 / 18
2026-08-15	$6.44	$47,683,567,682	16 / 19
2026-08-16	$6.44	$47,683,567,682	16 / 19
2026-08-17	$6.44	$47,683,567,682	16 / 19
2026-08-18	$6.44	$47,683,567,682	16 / 19
2026-08-19	$6.44	$47,683,567,682	16 / 19
2026-08-20	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-21	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-22	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-23	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-24	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-25	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-26	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-27	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-28	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-29	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-30	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-08-31	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-09-01	$6.55	$48,068,760,714	16 / 19
2026-09-02	$6.55	$48,068,771,850	16 / 19
2026-09-03	$6.55	$48,069,070,878	16 / 19
2026-09-04	$6.55	$48,069,070,878	16 / 19
2026-09-05	$6.55	$48,069,070,878	16 / 19
2026-09-06	$6.55	$48,069,070,878	16 / 19
2026-09-07	$6.55	$48,069,070,878	16 / 19
2026-09-08	$6.55	$48,069,070,878	16 / 19
2026-09-09	$6.55	$48,069,044,710	16 / 19
2026-09-10	$6.55	$48,069,044,710	16 / 19
2026-09-11	$6.55	$48,066,943,235	16 / 19
2026-09-12	$6.55	$48,066,943,235	16 / 19
2026-09-13	$6.55	$48,066,943,235	16 / 19
2026-09-14	$6.55	$48,066,943,235	16 / 19
2026-09-15	$6.55	$48,066,943,235	16 / 19
2026-09-16	$6.55	$48,066,943,235	16 / 19
2026-09-17	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-18	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-19	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-20	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-21	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-22	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-23	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-24	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-25	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-26	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-27	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-28	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-29	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-09-30	$6.56	$48,143,839,235	16 / 19
2026-10-01	$6.56	$48,143,795,235	16 / 19
2026-10-02	$6.56	$48,143,854,263	16 / 19
2026-10-03	$6.56	$48,143,854,263	16 / 19
2026-10-04	$6.56	$48,143,854,263	16 / 19
2026-10-05	$6.56	$48,143,854,263	16 / 19
2026-10-06	$6.56	$48,143,854,263	16 / 19
2026-10-07	$6.58	$48,244,054,263	16 / 19
2026-10-08	$6.58	$48,252,578,810	16 / 19
2026-10-09	$6.60	$48,265,531,360	16 / 19
2026-10-10	$6.60	$48,265,531,360	16 / 19
2026-10-11	$6.60	$48,294,398,277	16 / 19
2026-10-12	$6.60	$48,294,398,277	16 / 19
2026-10-13	$6.60	$48,366,478,277	16 / 19
2026-10-14	$6.63	$48,544,510,639	16 / 19
2026-10-15	$6.62	$48,499,870,639	16 / 20

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	18	1
2026-06-01	10	18	1
2026-07-01	10	18	1
2026-08-01	11	18	1
2026-09-01	10	17	1
2026-10-01	11	18	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 18 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 12

$76.00New observation · no comparable prior

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 8 · prior Jul 31

$59.00 → $53.00-10.2%

Morgan StanleyOct 7

$41.00New observation · no comparable prior

Leerink PartnersOct 5

$59.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsSep 23

$63.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerSep 16

$82.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$45.10$90.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 5 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

EPS near $6.20Diluted EPS: $1.62 per share
Gross margin near 69.5%Gross margin: 71.28%
Annual revenue near $46.6 billionRevenue: $12.973B

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Bristol Myers Squibb outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a strong emphasis on growth through its Growth Portfolio. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's consistent priorities.

What's priced into Bristol Myers Squibb

The market appears to price BMY as a cheap option compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully account for the potential upside from its growth initiatives.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management's focus on driving growth through the Growth Portfolio is on track, with consistent revenue increases. However, there is a mixed status on maintaining disciplined capital allocation, which could impact future cash flow stability.

What Bristol Myers Squibb hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the ability of BMY to maintain its growth trajectory while managing risks associated with sector performance and potential guidance changes. Key scenarios include the performance of sector bellwethers and the overall economic environment.