Cencora (COR)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-10-15

$340.92-0.14%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cencora’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Share repurchases of $1 billion by end of 2026	A supporting condition in Cencora's published investment case. The stated target is $1 billion share repurchases.	Intact	Share repurchases fall significantly short of $1 billion by end 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company repurchased $1 billion of shares in 2026-Q3, completing the amount expected for calendar 2026. Diluted shares outstanding decreased by 0.7% year-over-year to 193.9 million in 2026-Q3. Management has resumed share repurchases opportunistically and is delivering on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Adjusted diluted EPS near $17.8 for fiscal 2026	The company raised its EPS guidance to about $17.8 for fiscal 2026.	Under Pressure	EPS guidance falls below $17.65 for fiscal 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin near 12.5% next quarter	Profit margins are expected near 12.5% next quarter.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 11.5% next quarter	Operating margin: 1.32% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~12.5% operating margin. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 5, 20261.321715 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 04149dc7-fc4e-4abb-ab95-b62980a3b243. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually	A primary condition in Cencora's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$368.56B

Unavailable → $368.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$368,628,283,837	3 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$368,628,283,837	3 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$368,628,283,837	3 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$368,628,283,837	3 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$368,628,283,837	3 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$368,564,973,837	3 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$368,564,973,837	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$368,564,973,837	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	3
2026-06-01	12	2
2026-07-01	12	2
2026-08-01	12	3
2026-09-01	12	4
2026-10-01	11	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Share repurchases of $1 billion by end of 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted diluted EPS near $17.8 for fiscal 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Operating margin near 12.5% next quarterPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth at or above 7% annuallyDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cencora outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth through acquisitions and share repurchases. The current thesis state is intact, driven by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to key priorities.

What's priced into Cencora

The market appears to price COR as cheap compared to its peers, with a low expectations gap. However, the fragility in earnings quality and volatile management execution suggests that the market is cautious about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong in the near term, as management is on track with their priorities, including raising EPS guidance and integrating the OneOncology acquisition. There is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, but past performance raises some caution.

What Cencora hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers. Additionally, economic indicators, such as job reports, could impact sentiment and performance in the healthcare sector.

Bottom line

Overall, COR presents a compelling long-term thesis with solid execution on key priorities, but it faces moderate risks that could affect its trajectory. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.