Reading VRTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRTX free→Reading VRTX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track VRTX free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. If VRTX cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $453.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $450 the market pays 24× p/e — above the 17× p/e peer median but in line with its own 24× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $316 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $436–$616. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 42% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.98x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated fragile grew net income 40% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.74 → $4.73 (-0.3% / 30d). 9 raised, 9 cut, 24 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.3% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$249.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,356.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This submission is important for faster approval. It affects Vertex's growth in nephrology.
Confirms:Vertex will finish the BLA submission for povetacicept in IgAN by the end of Q2 2026.
Disproves:The BLA submission is delayed beyond the end of Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Expand CF product reach
Expanding pediatric pipeline supports CF product reach objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 28, 2026, Suketu Upadhyay informed the board of directors (the “Board”) of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the “Company”) of his decision not to stand for re-election as a director of the Company at the Company’s 2026 annual meeting of shareholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”). Mr. Upadhyay has recently been named the forthcoming Chief…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$436.00 – $616.00 (median $576.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue expanding the reach of CF products through new approvals and reimbursement agreements.
Continue the launch of JOURNAVX, focusing on expanding prescriptions and revenue.
Focus on increasing total revenue for 2026 through growth in CF and non-CF products.
Adjust revenue expectations for 2025 based on market conditions and product performance.
Adjust the non-GAAP effective tax rate guidance for 2025 to reflect changes in tax credits and liabilities.
Why it matters: Approval would grow the market for ALYFTREK and boost revenue from cystic fibrosis.
Confirms:Global approval granted for ALYFTREK for kids ages 2 to 5.
Disproves:Approval for ALYFTREK in children ages 2 to 5 is denied or delayed.
Why it matters: More prescriptions mean JOURNAVX is being accepted well in the market.
Confirms:JOURNAVX prescriptions exceed 400,000 in Q2 2026.
Disproves:JOURNAVX prescriptions fall below 350,000 in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue guidance can show shifts in the market or product success. This impacts how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Revenue guidance raised above $13.1 billion in Q3 2026.
Confirms the other:Revenue guidance lowered below $12.95 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Good results could grow the market for CASGEVY. This would help Vertex grow.
Confirms one read:Vertex shares positive data from key studies of CASGEVY in kids ages 5 to 11.
Confirms the other:Vertex shares negative data from key studies of CASGEVY in kids ages 5 to 11.
Why it matters: Going past this threshold shows Vertex is diversifying beyond cystic fibrosis treatments.
Confirms:Vertex reports non-CF product revenue of $500 million or more in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Non-CF product revenue remains below $500 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Expanding the CF product reach is vital for sustained revenue growth. It shows the company's ability to penetrate new markets.
Confirms:Vertex secures reimbursement for ALYFTREK in at least three new countries by Q3 2026.
Disproves:No new reimbursement deals for ALYFTREK by Q3 2026. This shows challenges in market access.
Why it matters: Updates could change growth plans and affect how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Vertex raises total revenue guidance for 2026 above $13.1 billion.
Confirms the other:Vertex lowers total revenue guidance for 2026 below $12.95 billion.
Departure of Directors of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officer On March 27, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the "Company") approved the Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 2026 Stock and Option Plan (the "2026 Plan"), which replaces the Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 2013 Stock and Option Plan, subject to shareholder approval. A summary of the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release in which it reported its consolidated financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchan…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release in which it reported its consolidated financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of that press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2025, Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release in which it reported its consolidated financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of that press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the…