Reading INSM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INSM free→Reading INSM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track INSM free→
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 194% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like VRTX, REGN, and ARGX, which could influence INSM's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $95.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $97 INSM trades at 27× p/s — 2.9× the 9× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $40 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $160–$245. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 144% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 94%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.78 → $-0.77 (+1.2% / 30d). 4 raised, 7 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 97.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$408.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,654.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If healthcare revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Insmed's performance.
Confirms:Healthcare revenue growth increases back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Healthcare revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 10%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for INSM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
The slide presentation to be used during the conference call referenced in the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein, including the exhibits attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth b…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$160.00 – $245.00 (median $205.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-05-13
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
INSM Insmed Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Insmed aims to achieve at least $1 billion in BRINSUPRI revenues for the full year 2026.
Insmed targets global ARIKAYCE revenues between $450 million and $470 million for 2026.
Insmed plans to develop INS1148, an investigational monoclonal antibody, for respiratory and immunological diseases.
Other Events. On April 7, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing topline efficacy and safety results from its Phase 2b CEDAR study of brensocatib in patients with HS. The CEDAR study was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of brensocatib in adults with moderate to severe HS. The study enrolled 214 patients at 72 sites globally. In the study, participants were randomized 1:1:1 to receive brensocatib 10 mg, brensocatib 40 mg, or…
Other Events. On March 23, 2026 , the Company issued a press release announcing positive topline results from the ENCORE Study. Topline efficacy results from the ENCORE Study are as follows: ARIKAYCE 590 mg plus azithromycin 250 mg + ethambutol 15 mg/kg once-daily (N=213) Placebo plus azithromycin 250 mg + ethambutol 15 mg/kg once-daily (N=212) Treatment difference, p-value Primary Endpoint Change from Baseline in Respiratory Symptom Score at Month 13 17.77 points 14.66 points 3.11 points, p=…
The slide presentation to be used during the conference call referenced in the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein, including the exhibits attached hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth b…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 17, 2026, David W.J. McGirr notified the board of directors (the “Board”) of the Company that he will not stand for re-election to the Board upon the expiration of his current term as a Class II director, which will occur at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Mr. McGirr will continue to serve as a…