Insmed Inc. (INSM)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-23

$93.39-1.76%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Insmed Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.83 → 0.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	573.85M
EPS	—	-0.318
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.8B
EPS	—	-1.573
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	2.91B
EPS	—	0.798

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
ARIKAYCE revenue between $450M and $470M in FY26	A primary condition in Insmed Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 450-470 USD_MILLIONS.	Improving	ARIKAYCE revenue falls below $450M in FY26	Revenue: $425.486M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 450-470 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 6, 2026425,486,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2341a77c-2536-42ef-b684-786d2b001407. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
BRINSUPRI revenue >= $1B in FY26	A primary condition in Insmed Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1000 USD_MILLIONS.	Intact	BRINSUPRI revenue falls below $1B in FY26	Revenue: $425.486M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1000 USD_MILLIONS. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 6, 2026425,486,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2341a77c-2536-42ef-b684-786d2b001407. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Development progress of INS1148 for respiratory diseases	A supporting condition in Insmed Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustained clinical development progress in 2026.	Intact	Development of INS1148 stalls or is discontinued	Qualitative progress confirmed; no stall/discontinuation reported Insmed's new drug launch is reshaping the business, strongly reinforcing INS1148 development progress for respiratory and inflammatory diseases. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Return to positive EPS by FY27	A primary condition in Insmed Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= 0.14 USD_PER_SHARE.	Improving	EPS remains negative through FY27	Diluted EPS: $-0.06 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= 0.14 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period ends 2027-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Source published Aug 6, 2026-0.06 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2341a77c-2536-42ef-b684-786d2b001407. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.80

$0.13 → $0.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.91B

$2.78B → $2.91B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.13	$2,776,122,330	17 / 21
2026-07-25	$0.34	$2,767,412,502	16 / 15
2026-07-26	$0.13	$2,776,394,800	17 / 21
2026-07-27	$0.34	$2,773,189,133	16 / 16
2026-07-28	$0.34	$2,773,189,133	16 / 16
2026-07-29	$0.13	$2,776,394,800	17 / 21
2026-07-30	$0.13	$2,776,394,800	17 / 21
2026-07-31	$0.13	$2,776,394,800	17 / 21
2026-08-01	$0.34	$2,773,189,133	16 / 16
2026-08-02	$0.13	$2,776,394,800	17 / 21
2026-08-03	$0.06	$2,777,847,180	16 / 21
2026-08-04	$0.06	$2,777,847,180	16 / 21
2026-08-05	$0.12	$2,775,381,100	17 / 21
2026-08-06	$0.12	$2,775,381,100	17 / 21
2026-08-07	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-08	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-09	$0.41	$2,846,784,400	9 / 21
2026-08-10	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-12	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-13	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-14	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-15	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-16	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-17	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-18	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-19	$0.33	$2,772,175,437	16 / 16
2026-08-20	$0.90	$2,876,338,289	16 / 15
2026-08-21	$0.90	$2,876,338,289	16 / 15
2026-08-22	$0.90	$2,876,338,289	16 / 15
2026-08-23	$0.90	$2,876,338,289	16 / 15
2026-08-24	$0.90	$2,876,338,289	16 / 15
2026-08-25	$0.90	$2,876,338,289	16 / 15
2026-08-26	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	16 / 15
2026-08-27	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	16 / 15
2026-08-28	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	16 / 15
2026-08-29	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	16 / 15
2026-08-30	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	16 / 15
2026-08-31	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	16 / 15
2026-09-01	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	15 / 15
2026-09-02	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	15 / 15
2026-09-03	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	15 / 15
2026-09-04	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	15 / 15
2026-09-05	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	15 / 15
2026-09-06	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	15 / 15
2026-09-07	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	15 / 15
2026-09-08	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	15 / 15
2026-09-09	$0.96	$2,894,090,670	15 / 15
2026-09-10	$0.91	$2,894,085,908	15 / 15
2026-09-11	$0.91	$2,894,085,908	15 / 15
2026-09-12	$0.91	$2,894,085,908	15 / 15
2026-09-13	$0.91	$2,894,085,908	15 / 15
2026-09-14	$0.91	$2,894,085,908	15 / 15
2026-09-15	$0.91	$2,894,085,908	15 / 15
2026-09-16	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-17	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-18	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-19	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-20	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-21	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-22	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-23	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-24	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-25	$0.83	$2,878,852,575	16 / 15
2026-09-26	$0.80	$2,882,591,994	16 / 16
2026-09-27	$0.80	$2,882,591,994	16 / 16
2026-09-28	$0.80	$2,882,591,994	16 / 16
2026-09-29	$0.81	$2,883,864,722	16 / 16
2026-09-30	$0.78	$2,883,864,722	16 / 16
2026-10-01	$0.78	$2,883,864,722	16 / 16
2026-10-02	$0.78	$2,883,864,735	16 / 16
2026-10-03	$0.78	$2,883,864,735	16 / 16
2026-10-04	$0.78	$2,883,864,735	16 / 16
2026-10-05	$0.78	$2,883,864,735	16 / 16
2026-10-06	$0.78	$2,883,864,735	16 / 16
2026-10-07	$0.78	$2,883,864,735	16 / 16
2026-10-08	$0.78	$2,884,636,599	16 / 16
2026-10-09	$0.79	$2,886,410,463	16 / 16
2026-10-10	$0.79	$2,886,410,463	16 / 16
2026-10-11	$0.79	$2,886,410,463	16 / 16
2026-10-12	$0.79	$2,886,410,463	16 / 16
2026-10-13	$0.73	$2,872,146,094	16 / 16
2026-10-14	$0.75	$2,908,600,639	16 / 16
2026-10-15	$0.75	$2,908,600,639	16 / 15
2026-10-16	$0.75	$2,908,691,330	16 / 15
2026-10-17	$0.75	$2,908,691,330	16 / 15
2026-10-18	$0.80	$2,912,433,316	15 / 15
2026-10-19	$0.80	$2,912,433,316	15 / 15
2026-10-20	$0.80	$2,912,433,316	15 / 15
2026-10-21	$0.80	$2,912,433,316	15 / 15
2026-10-22	$0.80	$2,911,147,386	15 / 15
2026-10-23	$0.80	$2,911,147,386	15 / 15
2026-10-24	$0.80	$2,911,147,386	16 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	22	0
2026-06-01	22	0
2026-07-01	23	0
2026-08-01	23	0
2026-09-01	24	0
2026-10-01	24	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 21 · prior Aug 7

$218.00 → $213.00-2.3%

Raymond JamesOct 20 · prior Oct 12

$207.00 → $173.00-16.4%

BarclaysSep 30

$207.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$119.90$239.80

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

ARIKAYCE revenue between $450M and $470M in FY26Revenue: $425.486M
BRINSUPRI revenue >= $1B in FY26Revenue: $425.486M
Return to positive EPS by FY27Diluted EPS: $-0.06 per share

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Insmed Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a commercial-growth biotech with an active development pipeline, rather than a proven, consistently profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact: BRINSUPRI and ARIKAYCE are growing, while TPIP remains a development-stage opportunity without reported commercial revenue.

What's priced into Insmed Inc.

The valuation is at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence tags that premium as justified, but model confidence is low. The negative expectations gap suggests expectations may be demanding relative to the evidence, even though no fragility gates fired.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show progress: second-quarter revenue rose to $425.5 million, BRINSUPRI revenue increased to $309.2 million, and ARIKAYCE revenue increased to $116.3 million. Management raised full-year revenue guidance and kept its ARIKAYCE guidance, while TPIP studies continue; the company remains loss-making, and the recent CFO transition adds a point to monitor.

What Insmed Inc. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued commercial growth and management delivering on raised guidance. A reversal and guidance cut would damage confidence, while continued strength from major Healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop; weakening employment data could increase recession concerns across the sector.