Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-29
$222.76+4.01%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put MRNA beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Biotechnology is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve up to 10% revenue growth in 2026: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 102% growth a year, above the roughly 8% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 34% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskModerna’s cancer vaccine pipeline must turn clinical promise into growth. Recent revenue growth slowed from 269% to 2% year over year. Q2 FY2026 earnings matched consensus, with revenue growth of 2%. Moderna trades at 40× sales versus peers’ 10× and its history’s 11×. The market expects more growth than our forecast. The next-quarter miss probability is 34%. The 2026 revenue-growth pillar needs review because its comparison is unverified. Peer multiples imply a price about 102% below where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. MRNA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 25 analysts currently covering MRNA (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MRNA in the last 4 months.
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Compare MRNA with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Biotechnology — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MRNA next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Investors react negatively to melanoma-vaccine trial data, challenging pipeline expectations.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $222.76
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $222.76.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Threatens: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Analysis says leaked cancer-vaccine data leave efficacy unclear, increasing pipeline uncertainty.
Threatens: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Analyst reaction to a sharp post-results drop highlights doubts about cancer-vaccine data.
Threatens: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Coverage frames cancer-vaccine news as negative despite favorable headline results.
Threatens: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Reported leak concerns late-stage melanoma vaccine data, but the headline does not establish verified results.
Threatens: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Sharp decline amid leaked cancer-vaccine data signals material investor concern about pipeline.
Advances: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Nasdaq-100 reentry and NIH cancer-vaccine support improve visibility for pipeline prospects.
Advances: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
National cancer vaccine effort aligns with late-stage pipeline advancement.
