Moderna (MRNA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-14
$146.69+1.89%
Close 2026-09-14 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-14
Research Workspace
Put MRNA beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Biotechnology is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Achieve up to 10% revenue growth in 2026: FY26 revenue guidance ~$1.1B vs FY25 ~$1.9B implies -42% YoY growth vs 10% target.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 28% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 44% growth a year, above the roughly 6% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 34% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskModerna's growth depends on achieving revenue growth in 2026. The company aims for up to 10% revenue growth. Recent guidance shows revenue of $1.1 billion, down 42% year over year. Revenue growth potential is recognized after positive Phase 3 results for its cancer vaccine. The stock trades at 26 times price-to-sales, above the peer median of 12 times. The market expects more growth than the company forecasts. A risk is that revenue growth guidance may be cut. The thesis has broken due to the primary pillar being broken.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-14. MRNA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 24 analysts currently covering MRNA (as of Sep 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for MRNA in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Biotechnology — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put MRNA next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Advances late-stage pipeline with potential for significant revenue growth.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-14. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $146.69
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $146.69.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Positive trial results could lead to key regulatory approvals.
GSK's challenge could hinder Moderna's market position.
Threatens: Maintain strong cash position
Increases debt, potentially impacting cash position.
Threatens: Maintain strong cash position
Debt issuance may impact cash position and growth objectives.
Advances: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
FDA approval supports late-stage pipeline advancement.
Advances: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
Key regulatory approval enhances late-stage pipeline prospects.
Advances: Advance late-stage pipeline with key regulatory approvals
FDA approval supports revenue growth from late-stage pipeline.
