Reading ONC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ONC free→Reading ONC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ONC free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, with ONC trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 245% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $263.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $268, ONC's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 60× p/e (3.6× the 17× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~243% near-term growth vs our ~48% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $78 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $340–$436. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 243% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 48%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated robust grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=1703).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.55 → $1.59 (+2.8% / 30d). 8 raised, 1 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 96% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 57.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$139.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$405.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,105.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 17.9 points (from 80.0 to 62.1).
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Reaching $300M would show strong progress toward the $750-$850M target. This could boost market sentiment.
Confirms:Q2 operating income reported at $300M or higher.
Disproves:Q2 operating income was less than $250M.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ONC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) As previously disclosed in the definitive proxy statement for the 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of BeOne Medicines Ltd. (the “Company”) filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on April 28, 2026 (the “Proxy Statement”), Mr. Michael Goller, Mr. Ranjeev Krishana, Dr. Corazon (Corsee) D. Sanders a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$340.00 – $436.00 (median $409.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Biotechnology.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ONC BEONE MEDICINES LTD | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABBV AbbVie | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | low |
AMGN Amgen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
GILD Gilead Sciences | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | moderate |
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding BRUKINSA's leadership position in the U.S. and global markets.
Maintain a GAAP gross margin in the high-80% range for fiscal year 2026.
Target GAAP operating income of $750 to $850 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: If it drops below 80%, it may be hard to keep making money. This could hurt investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 gross margin reported below 80%.
Disproves:Q2 gross margin remains above 80%.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Exhibit Index Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Press relea…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 14, 2026, BeOne Medicines Ltd. (the “Company”) filed its 2025 Annual Report (the “STAR Annual Report”) with the Science and Technology Innovation Board (the “STAR Market”) of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which was prepared in accordance with the listing rules of the STAR Market and the applicable securities laws and regulations of the Peoples’ Republic of China (the “PRC” and the “PRC Securities Laws”). As required by the PRC Securities…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Exhibit Index Exhibit No. Description 99.1 Press relea…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 17, 2025, BeOne Medicines Ltd. (the “Company”) appointed Dr. Lai Wang to serve as President, Global Head of Research and Development of the Company. In this role, Dr. Wang will oversee the research and development functions as well as other functions, including business development and alliance management. Dr. Wang, age 48, has served a…