Moderna (MRNA)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-15

$218.01-7.82%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Moderna’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain cash and investments near $7.5 billion	It plans to keep a strong cash position near $7.5 billion.	Intact	Cash and investments fall below 7.0 billion USD	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Cash, cash equivalents and investments decreased from $8.4 billion in 2025-Q1 to $6.9 billion in 2026-Q2, with management projecting year-end 2026 cash and investments between $4.7 and $5.2 billion. The trajectory reflects ongoing cash use for operations and investments but maintains a strong liquidity position consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Control operating expenses to avoid further sharp increases	A supporting condition in Moderna's published investment case. The stated target is Operating expenses do not exceed 1.8 billion USD per quarter.	Broken	Operating expenses rise above 1.8 billion USD per quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain operating margin near 4.4 billion USD in 2026	It plans to keep a strong cash position near $7.5 billion.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 4.2 billion USD in FY26	Operating margin: -562.07% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~4.4 billion USD operating margin. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 31, 2026-562.068966 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8c2214f3-cbae-40db-8d29-e5eb4198e5f7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve up to 10% revenue growth in 2026	A primary condition in Moderna's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below ~9% in FY26	Revenue growth: 2.11% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20262.112676 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 8c2214f3-cbae-40db-8d29-e5eb4198e5f7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $108 million in 2025-Q1 to $389 million in 2026-Q1, with management reiterating a target of up to 10% growth from 2025 revenue for 2026. The trajectory shows consistent emphasis and delivery of revenue growth aligned with stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-4.74

$-4.78 → $-4.74 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.43B

$2.52B → $2.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-4.78	$2,523,161,123	16 / 16
2026-07-25	$-4.75	$2,551,500,990	19 / 20
2026-07-26	$-4.75	$2,551,500,990	19 / 20
2026-07-27	$-4.75	$2,551,500,990	19 / 20
2026-07-28	$-4.77	$2,523,161,123	16 / 16
2026-07-29	$-4.77	$2,519,003,229	16 / 16
2026-07-30	$-4.75	$2,547,550,990	19 / 20
2026-07-31	$-4.77	$2,519,003,229	16 / 15
2026-08-01	$-4.77	$2,519,003,229	16 / 15
2026-08-02	$-4.97	$2,424,154,800	19 / 20
2026-08-03	$-4.80	$2,513,432,470	15 / 16
2026-08-04	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-05	$-4.91	$2,422,857,500	18 / 20
2026-08-06	$-4.91	$2,422,857,500	18 / 20
2026-08-07	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-08	$-4.91	$2,422,857,500	18 / 20
2026-08-09	$-4.91	$2,422,857,500	18 / 20
2026-08-10	$-4.91	$2,422,857,500	18 / 20
2026-08-12	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-13	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-14	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-15	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-16	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-17	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-18	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-19	$-4.79	$2,511,211,417	15 / 16
2026-08-20	$-4.88	$2,398,871,003	15 / 16
2026-08-21	$-4.88	$2,412,757,947	15 / 15
2026-08-22	$-4.88	$2,413,442,157	15 / 16
2026-08-23	$-4.88	$2,413,442,157	15 / 16
2026-08-24	$-4.88	$2,413,442,157	15 / 16
2026-08-25	$-4.88	$2,413,442,157	15 / 16
2026-08-26	$-4.90	$2,381,126,368	15 / 16
2026-08-27	$-4.90	$2,381,126,368	15 / 16
2026-08-28	$-4.90	$2,381,126,368	15 / 16
2026-08-29	$-4.94	$2,397,029,842	14 / 15
2026-08-30	$-4.94	$2,397,029,842	14 / 15
2026-08-31	$-4.94	$2,397,029,842	14 / 15
2026-09-01	$-4.88	$2,397,029,842	14 / 15
2026-09-02	$-4.88	$2,397,029,842	15 / 15
2026-09-03	$-4.88	$2,397,029,842	15 / 15
2026-09-04	$-4.89	$2,391,332,694	15 / 15
2026-09-05	$-4.80	$2,391,332,694	15 / 15
2026-09-06	$-4.80	$2,391,332,694	15 / 15
2026-09-07	$-4.80	$2,391,332,694	15 / 15
2026-09-08	$-4.80	$2,391,332,694	15 / 15
2026-09-09	$-4.80	$2,391,332,694	15 / 15
2026-09-10	$-4.80	$2,391,332,694	15 / 15
2026-09-11	$-4.80	$2,391,332,694	15 / 15
2026-09-12	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-13	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-14	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-15	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-16	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-17	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-18	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-19	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-20	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-21	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-22	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-23	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-24	$-4.77	$2,391,648,483	16 / 15
2026-09-25	$-4.73	$2,424,566,059	16 / 15
2026-09-26	$-4.73	$2,424,566,059	16 / 15
2026-09-27	$-4.73	$2,424,566,059	16 / 16
2026-09-28	$-4.73	$2,424,566,059	16 / 16
2026-09-29	$-4.73	$2,424,566,059	17 / 16
2026-09-30	$-4.73	$2,424,566,059	17 / 16
2026-10-01	$-4.73	$2,424,963,479	17 / 15
2026-10-02	$-4.73	$2,424,961,799	17 / 15
2026-10-03	$-4.73	$2,424,961,799	17 / 15
2026-10-04	$-4.73	$2,424,961,799	17 / 15
2026-10-05	$-4.73	$2,424,961,799	17 / 15
2026-10-06	$-4.73	$2,424,961,799	17 / 15
2026-10-07	$-4.73	$2,424,961,799	17 / 15
2026-10-08	$-4.75	$2,423,122,800	17 / 15
2026-10-09	$-4.75	$2,423,492,800	17 / 15
2026-10-10	$-4.74	$2,429,899,912	17 / 16
2026-10-11	$-4.74	$2,429,899,912	17 / 16
2026-10-12	$-4.74	$2,429,899,912	17 / 16
2026-10-13	$-4.74	$2,429,899,912	17 / 16
2026-10-14	$-4.74	$2,429,899,912	17 / 16
2026-10-15	$-4.74	$2,429,899,912	17 / 16

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	17	4
2026-06-01	4	17	4
2026-07-01	4	17	4
2026-08-01	6	18	3
2026-09-01	5	17	3
2026-10-01	5	15	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Goldman SachsOct 15 · prior Aug 19

$120.00 → $137.00+14.2%

$0$75.35$150.70

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain cash and investments near $7.5 billionDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Control operating expenses to avoid further sharp increasesPublished status: Broken
Maintain operating margin near 4.4 billion USD in 2026Operating margin: -562.07%
Achieve up to 10% revenue growth in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Moderna outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making, and while it has set ambitious revenue growth targets, recent financial performance has been weak.

What's priced into Moderna

The market appears to price in a premium compared to peers, reflecting a significant expectations gap. However, this valuation may not fully account for the company's current fragility and the challenges it faces.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on achieving up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, but recent results have not met expectations. There is a mixed outlook on maintaining a strong cash position and managing operating expenses, with some improvements noted.

What Moderna hinges on

The thesis hinges on the company's ability to meet its revenue targets and manage costs effectively. Additionally, external factors such as sector performance and economic conditions will significantly impact MRNA's trajectory.