Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)

NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-10-15

$499.74-1.77%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Vertex Pharmaceuticals’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

21.15 → 21.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cystic fibrosis product revenue growth	Vertex grows revenue about 8% yearly, driven by cystic fibrosis drugs.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year	Revenue growth: 12.45% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 202612.453199 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a67dec50-a3e6-4695-a0fc-ed060cca9ad7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Revenue grew from $2.96B in 2025-Q2 to $3.33B in 2026-Q2 (+12%), driven by CF therapies including ALYFTREK and TRIKAFTA. ALYFTREK reimbursement expanded to 25 countries by 2026-Q2, with ongoing regulatory submissions for younger patients. Management is delivering consistent growth and geographic expansion in CF. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
JOURNAVX revenue and prescription growth	A supporting condition in Vertex Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is >= $29 million revenue.	Intact	JOURNAVX revenue falls below $20 million next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expansion into rare disease market via acquisition	Vertex expands into rare diseases with a $10 billion acquisition.	Improving	Acquisition fails to add meaningful revenue or delays occur	Acquisition completed 2026-09-03; no revenue metric reported Vertex completed the $10B Crinetics acquisition in Sept 2026, adding a rare endocrine growth platform beyond CF. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Total revenue for fiscal year 2026	A primary condition in Vertex Pharmaceuticals's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12.95 billion revenue.	Intact	total revenue falls below $12.5 billion in FY26	Revenue: $3.334B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $12.95 billion revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20263,333,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a67dec50-a3e6-4695-a0fc-ed060cca9ad7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$21.05

$21.40 → $21.05 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.66B

$14.35B → $14.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$21.40	$14,347,104,807	13 / 16
2026-07-25	$21.31	$14,347,460,320	18 / 20
2026-07-26	$21.31	$14,347,460,320	18 / 20
2026-07-27	$21.31	$14,347,460,320	18 / 20
2026-07-28	$21.31	$14,347,460,320	18 / 20
2026-07-29	$21.33	$14,349,131,845	13 / 16
2026-07-30	$21.31	$14,347,460,320	18 / 20
2026-07-31	$21.31	$14,347,460,320	18 / 20
2026-08-01	$21.35	$14,357,493,940	14 / 17
2026-08-02	$21.34	$14,358,294,230	19 / 21
2026-08-03	$21.35	$14,357,493,940	14 / 17
2026-08-04	$21.26	$14,410,387,790	14 / 17
2026-08-05	$21.26	$14,410,387,790	14 / 17
2026-08-06	$21.29	$14,508,332,130	22 / 23
2026-08-08	$21.24	$14,528,366,068	14 / 16
2026-08-09	$21.24	$14,528,366,068	14 / 16
2026-08-10	$21.24	$14,528,366,068	14 / 16
2026-08-12	$21.80	$14,584,278,160	14 / 15
2026-08-13	$21.80	$14,584,278,160	14 / 15
2026-08-14	$21.24	$14,528,366,068	14 / 16
2026-08-15	$21.24	$14,528,366,068	14 / 16
2026-08-16	$21.24	$14,528,366,068	11 / 13
2026-08-17	$21.24	$14,528,366,068	11 / 13
2026-08-18	$21.24	$14,528,366,068	11 / 13
2026-08-19	$21.24	$14,528,366,068	11 / 13
2026-08-20	$21.33	$14,569,240,424	11 / 13
2026-08-21	$21.34	$14,573,557,976	11 / 13
2026-08-22	$21.34	$14,573,557,976	11 / 13
2026-08-23	$21.40	$14,579,946,180	11 / 12
2026-08-24	$21.40	$14,579,946,180	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$21.40	$14,579,946,180	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$21.40	$14,579,946,180	11 / 12
2026-08-27	$21.40	$14,579,946,180	11 / 12
2026-08-28	$21.40	$14,579,946,180	11 / 12
2026-08-29	$21.40	$14,579,946,180	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$21.40	$14,579,946,180	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$21.40	$14,579,946,180	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$21.40	$14,579,957,418	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$21.31	$14,575,507,378	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$21.31	$14,575,507,378	11 / 13
2026-09-04	$21.21	$14,575,507,378	11 / 13
2026-09-05	$21.21	$14,575,507,378	11 / 13
2026-09-06	$21.21	$14,575,507,378	11 / 13
2026-09-07	$21.21	$14,575,507,378	11 / 13
2026-09-08	$21.21	$14,575,507,378	11 / 13
2026-09-09	$21.21	$14,575,507,378	11 / 13
2026-09-10	$21.19	$14,578,565,709	11 / 11
2026-09-11	$21.19	$14,578,475,020	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$21.15	$14,600,583,759	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$21.15	$14,600,583,759	11 / 12
2026-09-14	$21.15	$14,600,583,759	11 / 12
2026-09-15	$21.15	$14,600,583,759	11 / 12
2026-09-16	$21.15	$14,600,607,885	11 / 12
2026-09-17	$21.15	$14,600,602,474	11 / 12
2026-09-18	$21.15	$14,600,602,474	11 / 12
2026-09-19	$21.15	$14,600,602,474	11 / 12
2026-09-20	$21.15	$14,600,602,474	11 / 12
2026-09-21	$21.15	$14,600,602,474	11 / 12
2026-09-22	$21.09	$14,608,366,671	11 / 12
2026-09-23	$21.09	$14,608,366,671	12 / 12
2026-09-24	$21.09	$14,616,321,055	12 / 13
2026-09-25	$21.09	$14,616,321,055	12 / 13
2026-09-26	$21.09	$14,616,402,919	12 / 13
2026-09-27	$21.09	$14,616,402,919	12 / 13
2026-09-28	$21.09	$14,616,402,919	12 / 13
2026-09-29	$21.11	$14,622,820,230	12 / 13
2026-09-30	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-01	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-02	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-03	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-04	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-05	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-06	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-07	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-08	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-09	$21.11	$14,624,859,515	12 / 13
2026-10-10	$21.10	$14,642,481,777	12 / 13
2026-10-11	$21.10	$14,642,481,777	12 / 13
2026-10-12	$21.10	$14,642,481,777	12 / 13
2026-10-13	$21.00	$14,672,688,162	12 / 14
2026-10-14	$21.05	$14,661,260,209	12 / 14
2026-10-15	$21.05	$14,661,260,209	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	27	5	1
2026-06-01	27	5	2
2026-07-01	27	4	2
2026-08-01	23	5	2
2026-09-01	26	4	2
2026-10-01	26	5	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

RBC CapitalOct 8 · prior Jul 7

$570.00 → $576.00+1.1%

UBSSep 28 · prior Jul 13

$585.00 → $615.00+5.1%

JefferiesSep 23

$640.00New observation · no comparable prior

H.C. WainwrightSep 22

$641.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$352.55$705.10

2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cystic fibrosis product revenue growthRevenue growth: 12.45%
JOURNAVX revenue and prescription growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Total revenue for fiscal year 2026Revenue: $3.334B

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Vertex Pharmaceuticals outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on expanding its cystic fibrosis product reach and launching new therapies. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance.

What's priced into Vertex Pharmaceuticals

The market appears to price in a premium compared to peers, reflecting elevated expectations for Vertex's growth. However, there is a noted fragility due to expensive valuation and recent execution quality concerns.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain strong, driven by consistent management execution and growth in key product areas. The near-term risk is moderate, with a low probability of missing expectations, although the industry has seen peers struggle recently.

What Vertex Pharmaceuticals hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on growth initiatives. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and overall economic conditions will influence Vertex's trajectory.