Reading ISRG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ISRG free→Reading ISRG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ISRG free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's track record is also neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ISRG is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 89% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $417.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $417 the market pays 45× p/e — above the 23× p/e peer median but in line with its own 59× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $219 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $525–$651. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 90% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.50 → $2.50 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 24 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 36.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$291.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,214.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to Intuitive's revenue outlook. A miss could signal weakening demand.
Confirms:Q2 da Vinci procedure growth reported below 13.5%.
Disproves:Q2 da Vinci procedure growth meets or exceeds 15.5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ISRG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Effective July 1, 2026, Henry L. Charlton will transition from his role as Chief Commercial and Marketing Officer of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (the “Company”) and begin serving as Senior Vice President of Global Business Operations of the Company. Taylor Patton, Global Senior Vice President, Endoluminal will succeed Mr. Charlton as the Company’s Chi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$525.00 – $651.00 (median $575.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BSX Boston Scientific | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding the number of da Vinci procedures performed globally.
Aim to sustain a stable gross profit margin within the guided range.
Continue the share repurchase program to return value to shareholders.
Manage operating expense growth within the guided range for 2026.
Increase the number of da Vinci surgical systems placed globally.
Why it matters: Keeping margins is important for making money. A drop may show higher costs or pricing issues.
Confirms:Gross profit margin reported below 67.5%.
Disproves:Gross profit margin reported above 68.5%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Approval of the Amendment and Restatement of the Amended and Restated 2010 Incentive Award Plan The Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (the “Company”) previously adopted, subject to stockholder approval, the amendment and restatement of the Company’s Amended and Restated 2010 Incentive Award Plan (the “Amended 2010 Plan”),…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026 , Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (“Intuitive”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On April 30, 2026, the Board increased the authorized amount available under the Company’s common stock repurchase program (the “Repurchase Program”) to an aggregate of $5.0 billion, including amounts remaining under previous authorization. The timing and total amount of repurchases will depend upon market conditions and may be made from time to time in open market purchases, privately negotiated transactions, accelerated share repurchase programs, issuer self-tender…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 22, 2026, Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (“Intuitive”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to…