Reading BDX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BDX free→Reading BDX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 45% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from BDX and the performance of sector bellwethers like ISRG, MDLN, and RMD. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $145.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $146 BDX trades at 11× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $249 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $159–$204. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 41% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.93x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.13 → $3.13 (+0.1% / 30d). 9 raised, 2 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 40% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$91.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$217.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,272.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well BD is managing after the spin-off and its financial health.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue decline or growth below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BDX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Subsidiary Notes Offering On May 20, 2026, Becton Dickinson Euro Finance S.à r.l., a private limited liability company (société à responsabilité limitée) incorporated under the laws of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg (“Becton Finance”) and an indirect, wholly-owned subsidiary of Becton, Dickinson and Company (“BD”), issued €600,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.855% Notes due 2033 (the “Becton Finance Notes”) in an underwritten public offeri…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$159.00 – $204.00 (median $171.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BDX Becton Dickinson | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
24 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the spin-off of the Biosciences and Diagnostic Solutions business and combine it with Waters Corporation.
Utilize $2 billion from cash distribution for share repurchases through an accelerated share repurchase program.
Use $2 billion from cash distribution for debt repayment.
Why it matters: Approval is important for the merger to happen and for BD to gain benefits.
Confirms:Regulators said yes to the Waters merger.
Disproves:Regulators block or delay the merger.
Why it matters: Using cash to pay off debt can help BD's finances and lower interest costs.
Confirms:BD announces successful repayment of at least $2 billion in debt.
Disproves:BD fails to make any debt repayments as planned.
Why it matters: Completing the share buyback shows BD's commitment to returning value to shareholders. It can boost earnings per share.
Confirms:BD finished its $2 billion share buyback program.
Disproves:BD delays or cancels the share repurchase program without a valid reason.
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On October 15, 2025, the Company filed a Current Report on Form 8-K that reported that Vitor Roque, who previously served as the Company’s Senior Vice President of Finance, Business Units and Corporate Financial Planning & Analysis, was appointed as the Company’s interim Chief Financial Officer, effective December 5, 2025. Effective May 7, 2026 (th…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On May 7, 2026, Becton, Dickinson and Company (“BD”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1 contains certain financial measures that differ from those presented in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“non-GAAP measures”). Details regard…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On April 6, 2026, Richard E. Byrd, Executive Vice President and President of the Interventional segment of Becton, Dickinson and Company (“BD”), informed BD of his intention to retire. Mr. Byrd will remain in his role through June. BD intends to name a successor to Mr. Byrd prior to his retirement date.