Becton Dickinson (BDX)

NYSEHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$191.75-1.04%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Becton Dickinson’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Return $2.2 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends	The company returns cash to shareholders with $2.2 billion in buybacks and dividends.	Intact	Capital returned falls below $2 billion annually	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. The company executed a $2.0 billion accelerated share repurchase program in 2026-Q2 and announced the intention to use $2 billion of spin-off proceeds for share repurchases in prior quarters. The execution matches management's stated capital allocation plan. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Use $2 billion cash distribution to repay debt	The company returns cash to shareholders with $2.2 billion in buybacks and dividends.	Intact	Debt repayment from cash distribution falls below $1 billion	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company retired $2.1 billion of debt in 2026-Q2 and previously announced plans to use $2 billion of spin-off proceeds for debt repayment. The financial execution aligns with management's stated capital allocation priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Non-GAAP EPS near $12.6 per share	It keeps beating earnings estimates with EPS around $12.6 next year.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $12.5 for FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 5% annually	A primary condition in Becton Dickinson's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 0% next year	Revenue growth: -9.55% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-9.548012 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: acf887e2-e3eb-489a-ae11-c31a45d94fb7. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$20.47B

$20.44B → $20.47B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$20,437,589,262	2 / 9
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$20,437,567,040	2 / 9
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$20,437,567,040	2 / 9
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$20,437,567,040	2 / 9
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$20,437,567,040	2 / 9
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 9
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 10
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 10
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 10
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 10
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 10
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 10
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 10
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 10
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$20,468,210,336	2 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	9	0
2026-06-01	6	9	0
2026-07-01	7	8	0
2026-08-01	7	7	0
2026-09-01	7	7	0
2026-10-01	7	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 7 · prior May 11

$204.00 → $165.00-19.1%

$0$112.20$224.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Return $2.2 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividendsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Use $2 billion cash distribution to repay debtDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Non-GAAP EPS near $12.6 per shareDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth at or above 5% annuallyRevenue growth: -9.55%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-23.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Becton Dickinson outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on growth and margin expansion. The current thesis state is stable, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's commitment to strategic priorities.

What's priced into Becton Dickinson

The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with a slight expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in a robust performance, but there is a premium indicating that investors expect continued strong execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management's focus on advancing growth platforms and margin expansion is likely to support strong fundamentals in the near term. However, there is a moderate risk due to the company's recent history of misses, which could impact future performance.

What Becton Dickinson hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and execute their strategic priorities effectively. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and broader economic indicators will be crucial for BDX's trajectory.

Bottom line

Overall, BDX shows promise with its strong fundamentals and strategic focus, but it must navigate potential risks in the near term. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.