Reading DXCM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DXCM free→Reading DXCM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future results. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If DXCM cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $74.22. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 the market pays 32× p/e — above the 23× p/e peer median but in line with its own 53× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $56 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $64–$100. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 33% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 21%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated strong grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=2344).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.92x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=2269).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.61 → $0.61 (+0.1% / 30d). 10 raised, 4 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
7 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 18.4% above current price.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$360.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,875.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show how the company is doing. This can affect market feelings.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings beat consensus estimates by more than 10%.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DXCM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On April 30, 2026, DexCom, Inc. (“Dexcom”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and certain other information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”),…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$64.00 – $100.00 (median $82.00) · 13 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DXCM Dexcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | full | moderate |
ABT Abbott Laboratories | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ISRG Intuitive Surgical | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
SYK Stryker Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
MDT Medtronic | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Dexcom aims to achieve organic revenue growth of 10%+ every year through 2030.
Dexcom is focused on improving its Non-GAAP Operating Margin to 29-30% by 2030.
Dexcom aims to maintain a Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin of 67-69% by 2030.
Dexcom announced a new share repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand for Dexcom's products.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth was less than 11% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 11% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Progress in the share repurchase program could boost shareholder value and confidence.
Confirms:Dexcom announces completion of at least $500 million in share repurchases by Q3.
Disproves:No big share buybacks reported by Q3.
Why it matters: Rick Osterloh's skills could help Dexcom create better products.
Confirms:New products or innovations match Osterloh's skills.
Disproves:No new products or delays in product launches.
Why it matters: Operating margin shows if the company controls costs well.
Confirms one read:Q2 non-GAAP operating margin is more than 23.5%.
Confirms the other:Q2 non-GAAP operating margin is less than 23%.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback may show that management trusts the stock's value.
Confirms:More share repurchases were announced, adding to the first $1 billion.
Disproves:No updates or a pause in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: If revenue guidance goes up, it shows strong demand and good operations.
Confirms:Management raises revenue guidance for 2026 to more than $5.25 billion.
Disproves:Management keeps or lowers revenue guidance to less than $5.16 billion.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs and better efficiency.
Confirms:Operating margin is expected to be over 23.5% in the next quarters.
Disproves:Operating margin is expected to be under 23% in the next quarters.
OTHER EVENTS. On May 14, 2026, Dexcom announced that its Board of Directors authorized and approved a share repurchase program of up to $1.0 billion of Dexcom’s outstanding common stock, par value $0.001 per share (“Common Stock”), with a repurchase period ending no later than June 30, 2027 (the “Share Repurchase Program”). In connection with the approval of the Share Repurchase Program, the Board of Directors terminated its existing share repurchase program, of which $250.0 million remained…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. As previously reported on the Current Report on Form 8-K filed on July 30, 2025, Kevin R. Sayer notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of DexCom, Inc. (“Dexcom” or the “Company”) of his intent to retire from his role as Chief Executive Officer effective January 1, 2026. In connection with his retirement, on July 25, 2025, the Board appointed…
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS. On February 26, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of DexCom, Inc. (“Dexcom” or the “Company”), pursuant to the Amended and Restated Bylaws of the Company, increased the size of the Board to twelve directors and appointed Albert F. (“Rick”) Osterloh, IV as a director effective immediately. Mr. Osterloh will hold office for a term expiring a…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On February 12, 2026, DexCom, Inc. (“Dexcom”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 and certain other information. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “…