Dexcom (DXCM)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$86.04-1.90%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Dexcom’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.12 → 3.13 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Non-GAAP gross margin maintains 67-69% by 2030	A supporting condition in Dexcom's published investment case. The stated target is 67-69%.	Improving	Gross margin falls below 63% beyond FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Non-GAAP gross profit margin improved from 60.1% in 2025-Q2 to 64.1% in 2026-Q2. Fiscal year 2026 guidance for Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin was raised to approximately 64%. Management is delivering improved gross margin and raised guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Non-GAAP operating margin improves to 29-30% by 2030	A primary condition in Dexcom's published investment case. The stated target is 29-30%.	Intact	Operating margin remains below 22% beyond FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Non-GAAP operating margin improved from 19.2% in 2025-Q2 to 25.1% in 2026-Q2. Fiscal year 2026 guidance for Non-GAAP Operating Margin was raised to 23.5-24%. Management is delivering improved profitability and raised margin guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Organic revenue growth of at least 10% per year through 2030	Dexcom grows sales about 10% a year through 2030.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in any year through 2030	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Complete $1 billion share repurchase program by mid-2027	A supporting condition in Dexcom's published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase up to $1.0 billion shares.	Intact	Share repurchase program is canceled or materially delayed	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 7 quarters. In 2025-Q3, Dexcom executed a $750 million share repurchase program and in 2026-Q2, the Board authorized an expanded $1.0 billion repurchase program through June 30, 2027. Management is delivering on capital allocation with an active buyback program. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.13

$3.08 → $3.13 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.80B

$5.83B → $5.80B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.08	$5,826,645,990	24 / 26
2026-07-25	$3.08	$5,826,645,990	24 / 26
2026-07-26	$3.09	$5,820,178,204	15 / 20
2026-07-27	$3.09	$5,820,178,204	15 / 20
2026-07-28	$3.09	$5,820,178,204	15 / 20
2026-07-29	$3.09	$5,817,243,262	15 / 21
2026-07-30	$3.09	$5,817,243,262	16 / 21
2026-07-31	$3.08	$5,823,569,090	25 / 27
2026-08-01	$3.10	$5,814,906,302	15 / 21
2026-08-02	$3.11	$5,814,854,150	25 / 27
2026-08-03	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-04	$3.11	$5,814,854,150	25 / 27
2026-08-05	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-06	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-07	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-08	$3.13	$5,800,688,650	25 / 27
2026-08-09	$3.13	$5,800,688,650	25 / 27
2026-08-10	$3.13	$5,800,688,650	25 / 27
2026-08-11	$3.12	$5,799,775,560	25 / 27
2026-08-12	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-13	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-14	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-15	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-16	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-17	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-18	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-19	$3.11	$5,797,933,210	16 / 21
2026-08-20	$3.12	$5,796,001,600	16 / 21
2026-08-21	$3.12	$5,796,001,600	16 / 21
2026-08-22	$3.12	$5,796,001,600	16 / 21
2026-08-23	$3.12	$5,796,001,600	16 / 21
2026-08-24	$3.12	$5,796,001,600	16 / 21
2026-08-25	$3.12	$5,796,001,600	16 / 21
2026-08-26	$3.12	$5,796,001,600	16 / 21
2026-08-27	$3.12	$5,796,001,600	16 / 21
2026-08-28	$3.12	$5,796,001,600	16 / 21
2026-08-29	$3.12	$5,796,036,554	16 / 20
2026-08-30	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-08-31	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-01	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-02	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-03	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-04	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-05	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-06	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-07	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-08	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-09	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-10	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 20
2026-09-11	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-12	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-13	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-14	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-15	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-16	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-17	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-18	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-19	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-20	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-21	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-22	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-23	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-24	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-25	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-26	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-27	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-28	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-29	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-09-30	$3.12	$5,796,004,796	16 / 21
2026-10-01	$3.12	$5,796,039,750	16 / 21
2026-10-02	$3.12	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-03	$3.12	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-04	$3.12	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-05	$3.12	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-06	$3.12	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-07	$3.12	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-08	$3.12	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-09	$3.13	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-10	$3.13	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-11	$3.13	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-12	$3.13	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-13	$3.13	$5,796,032,058	16 / 21
2026-10-14	$3.13	$5,796,029,712	16 / 21
2026-10-15	$3.13	$5,796,029,712	16 / 21

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	25	3	1
2026-06-01	25	3	0
2026-07-01	25	3	0
2026-08-01	25	3	0
2026-09-01	25	3	0
2026-10-01	26	3	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 13 · prior Jun 9

$85.00 → $100.00+17.6%

BarclaysOct 6 · prior May 18

$64.00 → $115.00+79.7%

RBC CapitalOct 1 · prior Aug 3

$90.00 → $105.00+16.7%

Truist FinancialSep 18 · prior Jul 31

$93.00 → $102.00+9.7%

$0$63.25$126.50

4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Non-GAAP gross margin maintains 67-69% by 2030Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Non-GAAP operating margin improves to 29-30% by 2030Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Organic revenue growth of at least 10% per year through 2030Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Complete $1 billion share repurchase program by mid-2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Dexcom outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and margin growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by robust earnings quality and strong financial performance.

What's priced into Dexcom

The market appears to have a neutral stance on DXCM, with a low expectations gap. The valuation is aligned with peers, but it carries a premium, suggesting that some growth is already factored into the current setup.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to increase revenue and improve profitability, as indicated by their consistent performance and raised guidance. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent industry misses, which could impact DXCM's fundamentals in the near term.

What Dexcom hinges on

The thesis hinges on maintaining revenue guidance and profitability improvements while watching for sector momentum from peers like ABT, MDT, and SYK. Additionally, any negative shifts in economic indicators, such as a weakening jobs report, could pose risks.