Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$426.70-0.27%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Intuitive Surgical’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.08 → 12.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 17 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Grow da Vinci procedures about 16% YoY	Intuitive Surgical grows da Vinci procedures about 16% yearly.	Intact	procedure growth falls below 10% YoY next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross profit margin near 68%	Profit margins stay near 68%.	Improving	gross margin falls below 66% next year	Gross margin: 67.78% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 67.5% to 68.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 21, 202667.779967 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2962487f-fb7d-4eab-a4a2-cafe35c7bcca. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 7 of last 7 quarters. Non-GAAP gross profit margin guidance ranged from 65% to 69% over the period, with 2026-Q2 actual gross margin approximately 67.8%. Management has maintained consistent margin targets despite tariff impacts, showing a stable trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 14, 2026
Repurchase shares actively, about $1.1B in Q1 2026	The company actively buys back shares, returning value.	Intact	share repurchases drop below $500M per quarter next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 7 quarters. The Board authorized a $5 billion repurchase program in 2026-Q2. Management repurchased $1.48 billion in shares over 2026-Q1 and Q2, showing active execution of the program. The trajectory is delivering on capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 14, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$12.10

$12.03 → $12.10 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$13.27B

$13.28B → $13.27B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.03	$13,280,918,150	17 / 25
2026-07-25	$12.02	$13,239,642,400	26 / 31
2026-07-26	$12.02	$13,239,642,400	26 / 31
2026-07-27	$12.04	$13,277,819,220	16 / 25
2026-07-28	$12.04	$13,277,819,220	16 / 25
2026-07-29	$12.07	$13,258,938,380	27 / 32
2026-07-30	$12.07	$13,258,938,380	27 / 32
2026-07-31	$12.08	$13,283,646,107	17 / 25
2026-08-01	$12.08	$13,283,646,107	17 / 25
2026-08-02	$12.07	$13,249,549,360	27 / 32
2026-08-03	$12.07	$13,249,549,360	27 / 32
2026-08-04	$12.07	$13,249,549,360	27 / 32
2026-08-05	$12.07	$13,249,549,360	27 / 32
2026-08-06	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-07	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-08	$12.07	$13,249,549,360	27 / 32
2026-08-09	$12.07	$13,249,549,360	27 / 32
2026-08-10	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-12	$12.07	$13,249,549,360	27 / 32
2026-08-13	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-14	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-15	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-16	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-17	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-18	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-19	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-20	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-21	$12.08	$13,273,631,158	17 / 25
2026-08-22	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-08-23	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-08-24	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-08-25	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-08-26	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-08-27	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-08-28	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-08-29	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-08-30	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-08-31	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-09-01	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-09-02	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-09-03	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-09-04	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-09-05	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-09-06	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-09-07	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-09-08	$12.08	$13,273,765,491	17 / 25
2026-09-09	$12.08	$13,273,756,928	17 / 25
2026-09-10	$12.08	$13,273,743,968	17 / 25
2026-09-11	$12.08	$13,273,752,531	18 / 25
2026-09-12	$12.08	$13,273,752,531	18 / 25
2026-09-13	$12.08	$13,273,752,531	17 / 24
2026-09-14	$12.08	$13,273,752,531	17 / 24
2026-09-15	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-16	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-17	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-18	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-19	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-20	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-21	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-22	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-23	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-24	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-25	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-26	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-27	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-28	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-29	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-09-30	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-10-01	$12.08	$13,273,756,001	17 / 24
2026-10-02	$12.08	$13,273,222,668	17 / 24
2026-10-03	$12.08	$13,273,222,668	17 / 24
2026-10-04	$12.08	$13,273,222,668	17 / 24
2026-10-05	$12.08	$13,273,222,668	17 / 24
2026-10-06	$12.09	$13,276,722,668	17 / 24
2026-10-07	$12.09	$13,276,722,668	17 / 24
2026-10-08	$12.10	$13,276,722,668	17 / 24
2026-10-09	$12.10	$13,276,722,668	16 / 24
2026-10-10	$12.10	$13,276,722,668	16 / 24
2026-10-11	$12.10	$13,274,012,668	16 / 24
2026-10-12	$12.10	$13,274,012,668	16 / 24
2026-10-13	$12.10	$13,274,012,668	16 / 24
2026-10-14	$12.10	$13,274,012,668	16 / 24
2026-10-15	$12.10	$13,274,012,668	16 / 24

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	23	10	2
2026-06-01	22	9	2
2026-07-01	24	10	2
2026-08-01	24	9	1
2026-09-01	24	8	1
2026-10-01	26	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 13 · prior Jul 17

$400.00 → $415.00+3.8%

BTIGOct 12 · prior Jul 17

$469.00 → $454.00-3.2%

BarclaysOct 6 · prior Apr 23

$651.00 → $485.00-25.5%

$0$358.05$716.10

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Grow da Vinci procedures about 16% YoYDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain gross profit margin near 68%Gross margin: 67.78%
Repurchase shares actively, about $1.1B in Q1 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 20, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-44.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Intuitive Surgical outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

ISRG represents a durable compounder in the healthcare sector. The company has shown strong recent financial performance, but its valuation is currently considered expensive compared to peers.

What's priced into Intuitive Surgical

The market seems to have priced in a durable premium for ISRG, reflecting expectations of continued growth. However, there is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some cautious sentiment may be present.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is focused on increasing da Vinci procedure volume and controlling operating expenses, which have shown positive results. The near-term risk of missing earnings is low, but there is a history of earnings surprises trending down.

What Intuitive Surgical hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and control costs while external factors, such as sector performance and economic conditions, play a significant role. Monitoring sector bellwethers for signals will be important.