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Comtech Telecommunications Corp (CMTL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$2.99+8.53%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, it is typical. There is no valuation input available. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Market cap
- $82.54M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-03-13
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.99. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primary—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $2.75 CMTL trades at 0× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $12 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.2x
peer 3.4x · own history —
Premium
0.1x peer
Growth the price needs
-77%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$11.79
range $11.79 – $11.79
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
no read12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 77% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
39th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 2.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
66th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +4.0% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.25 → $-0.24 (+4.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 3 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$295.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$766.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,393.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- earnings refresh · company_momentum_scoremoderate change
Company momentum rose by 37.1 points (from 3.3 to 40.4) after fresh earnings.
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'None'.
As of June 16, 2026, company momentum rose. This change reflects an increase in recent performance following fresh earnings. Additionally, the valuation label changed, moving from "inexpensive" to a status of "None.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a weakening trend in the tech sector. This could impact Comtech's performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median level.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-151d agoSeeking Alpha
M&A call indicates progress on Wavestream acquisition.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CMTL and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, NOK, and LITE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting CMTL and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If CMTL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-10), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If CMTL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2025-11-10), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, NOK, and LITE start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping CMTL and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Securities Purchase Agreement Overview On June 14, 2026, Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (“Comtech” or the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”), by and among Comtech, certain direct or indirect subsidiaries of Comtech named therein and Wavestream Corporation (the “Buyer”), a Delaware corporation and an affiliate of Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd (the “Buyer Parent”), a company incorporated under the laws…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.