Reading BIRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BIRD free→Reading BIRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BIRD free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BIRD trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.84 BIRD trades at 0× p/s, below its 0× p/s peer median. Our $8.20 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 53% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.52x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
21 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$382.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$899.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,033.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Improving gross margin is key for Allbirds to become profitable. It shows better cost management.
Confirms:Gross margin improves year over year by more than 2%.
Disproves:Gross margin declines year over year or stays flat.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BIRD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously announced, on March 29, 2026, the Company and Allbirds IP LLC, a Delaware limited liability company affiliated with American Exchange Group (the “ Purchaser ”), entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement (the “ Asset Purchase Agreement ”) pursuant to which the Purchaser would (i) acquire the Company’s assets relating to its footwear business, including those related to intellectual property assets (including global trademarks, tr…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BIRD Allbirds Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving gross margin through cost efficiencies and pricing strategies.
Aim to stabilize revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Allocate capital by issuing convertible notes to strengthen financial position.
Why it matters: Stable revenue growth shows Allbirds is handling market issues. This can help investor trust.
Confirms:Revenue growth stabilizes at or above 0% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Issuing convertible notes can change capital structure and how investors feel. It shows Allbirds' debt management.
Confirms one read:Convertible notes can cause stock prices to rise after they are issued.
Confirms the other:Convertible notes can cause stock prices to fall after they are issued.
Other Events. As previously disclosed, the Company intends to make a distribution, in the form of a special dividend, to stockholders of record of a portion of the proceeds from the Asset Sale (such special dividend, the “ Asset Sale Dividend ”). The board of directors of the Company has established June 25, 2026, as the record date for the stockholders of the Company entitled to receive the Asset Sale Dividend, with the payment of the Asset Sale Dividend to occur within 60 days of such recor…
Other Events. Allbirds, Inc. (the “ Company ”) previously entered into a Class A Common Stock Sales Agreement (the “ Sales Agreement ”) with Chardan Capital Markets LLC (“ Chardan ”), to sell shares of its Class A Common Stock (the “ ATM Shares ”), from time to time, through an “at the market offering” program under which Chardan, acting as sales agent or principal (including through its affiliates), will offer and sell the ATM Shares. The sales, if any, of the ATM Shares made under the Sales…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. As previously disclosed, on April 14, 2026, Allbirds, Inc., a Delaware public benefit corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (as subsequently amended, the “Purchase Agreement”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to issue and sell senior secured convertible notes in an aggregate original principal amount of up to $50.0 million (the “Convertible Notes”), convertible into shares of the Company’s Class A common stock (t…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Entry into Asset Purchase Agreement On May 26, 2026, Allbirds, Inc., a Delaware public benefit corporation (the “ Company ”), Allbirds International, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Guarantor ”), the Lenders party thereto, and Second Avenue Capital Partners LLC, as Administrative Agent and Collateral Agent (in such capacities, the “ Agent ”) entered into a Third Amendment to Credit Agreement (the “ Third Amendment to Credit Agreement ”), which T…