Reading BGC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BGC free→Reading BGC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BGC free→NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, BGC trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 39% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $11.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 BGC trades at 9× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.72x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.34 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$131.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$278.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,325.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
Confirms one read:Dividend payment remains at $0.02 per share in Q2 2026.
Confirms the other:Dividend payment is cut or suspended in Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BGC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Investment Banking & Brokerage.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BGC BGC Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
MS Morgan Stanley | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | moderate |
GS Goldman Sachs | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | moderate |
SCHW Charles Schwab Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
IBKR Interactive Brokers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding revenue across all asset classes and geographies.
Improve operating income through cost management and revenue growth.
Continue to provide consistent dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: A revenue miss would indicate a slowdown in growth momentum after a record Q1.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue guidance below $785 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue guidance meets or exceeds $845 million.
Why it matters: ECS growth is key to BGC's overall performance. A slowdown could signal market share loss.
Confirms:ECS revenue growth below 100% YoY in Q2 2026.
Disproves:ECS revenue growth remains above 100% YoY.
Why it matters: If cost savings targets are met, operating income will increase. This can help margins grow.
Confirms:Cost savings reported above $35 million by year-end 2026.
Disproves:Cost savings reported below $35 million by year-end 2026.
of Form 8-K. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing and as set forth below. Discussion of Forward-Looking Statements about BGC Statements…
Other Events. On May 15, 2026, BGC Group, Inc. (“BGC” or the “Company”) entered into the Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (“Third A&R Credit Agreement”), which amends and restates that certain Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated as of April 26, 2024, as amended by that First Amendment to Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement dated December 6, 2024 (as so amended and as further amended, restated, supplemented or otherwise modified prior to the date hereof, the…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
of Form 8-K. Such information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing and as set forth below. Discussion of Forward-Looking Statemen…