BGC Group, Inc. (BGC)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$11.79-0.84%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BGC Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	831.18M
EPS	—	0.34
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	3.46B
EPS	—	1.425
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	3.67B
EPS	—	1.6

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain quarterly dividend payments of $0.02 per share	The company pays steady dividends of $0.02 per share, reflecting stable capital return.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.02 in any quarter next 4 quarters	Dividend per share: $0.02 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend = $0.02 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20260.02 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bed6082d-bdb2-4a8b-916b-2c28f307ed36. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Board consistently declared quarterly dividends of $0.02 per share in 2025-Q4, 2026-Q1, and 2026-Q2. Dividend payments have been maintained steadily, matching management's stated commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Grow FMX UST futures market share to 41% or higher	Market share in FMX UST futures grew from 33% to 41%, showing strong competitive gains.	Intact	FMX UST market share falls below 33% next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand operating income and margins via cost savings	Profit rose 44% to $115 million, helped by cost savings expanded to $35 million annually.	Intact	Operating income falls below $115 million or cost savings below $25 million annualized next 4 quarters	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 8% annually	A primary condition in BGC Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=8% YoY revenue growth.	Under Pressure	YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in FY27	Revenue growth: 7.85% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=8% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20267.849577 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: bed6082d-bdb2-4a8b-916b-2c28f307ed36. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	0	0
2026-06-01	2	0	0
2026-07-01	2	0	0
2026-08-01	2	0	0
2026-09-01	2	0	0
2026-10-01	2	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain quarterly dividend payments of $0.02 per shareDividend per share: $0.02 per share
Grow FMX UST futures market share to 41% or higherDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Expand operating income and margins via cost savingsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Sustain revenue growth near 8% annuallyPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BGC Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

BGC is a financial-services growth story, with management focused on expanding revenue across asset classes and regions. The long-term thesis is on watch: the latest signal improved to mildly favorable, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into BGC Group, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: BGC is described as cheap versus peers, yet its modeled premium versus peers is 0.53 and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is modestly negative at -0.06, while priced-in fragility is low and the current setup is considered justified rather than broadly fragile.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term revenue growth has been uneven, rising from $756.4 million in 2025-Q4 to $955.5 million in 2026-Q1, then easing to $845.5 million in 2026-Q2, which was up 7.8% year over year. Management’s broad growth priority is on track, and FMX UST market share increased from 35% to 42% between 2025-Q2 and 2026-Q2; cost savings remain under watch, while dividend delivery is mixed. Recent earnings were in line, but prior misses and a Financials sector headwind remain risks; the stated near-term miss probability is low at 21%.

What BGC Group, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on whether BGC sustains growth across markets and delivers the planned cost reductions. A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as MS, GS, and SCHW would support sector momentum. The evidence also flags rate cuts from the current 3.88% as a sector risk.