Reading BDSX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BDSX free→Reading BDSX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BDSX free→NASDAQHealth CareDiagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 BDSX trades at 2× p/s, below its 4× p/s peer median. Our $78 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 80% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.78x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.86 → $-0.92 (-7.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 72.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$300.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$960.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,928.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Biodesix can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings show a smaller loss than last quarter. This means better performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter, signaling ongoing struggles.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BDSX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
to this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such document or filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Life Sciences Tools & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BDSX Biodesix Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | fair | moderate |
DHR Danaher Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
A Agilent Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | full | moderate |
WAT Waters Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Biodesix aims to increase its FY 2026 revenue guidance to $108-114 million, reflecting a 25% growth.
Biodesix aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA positivity by the end of Q4 2025.
Biodesix is focused on increasing its revenue, as evidenced by recent financial results.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth speeds up, it could help Biodesix's outlook. A strong sector can lift individual companies.
Confirms:Health care revenue growth rises back toward 10% year over year.
Disproves:Health care revenue growth continues to slow below 10% year over year.
to this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such document or filing.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K/A, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the Exchange Act), and shall be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made by the Company under the Exchange Act or Securities Act of 1933, as amended, to the extent specifically incorporated by reference therein.
to this Current Report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such document or filing.
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth in