Biodesix Inc (BDSX)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-10-23

$21.18-11.53%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Biodesix Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	31.99M
EPS	—	-0.427
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$108M–$114M	111.95M
EPS	—	-2.673
Gross margin	About 80%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	134.62M
EPS	—	-1.669

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA positivity by end of 2025	Management targets adjusted EBITDA positivity by end of 2025.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA remains negative after 2025-Q4	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $111 million in FY 2026	Biodesix aims to grow revenue to about $111 million in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $108 million in FY26	Revenue: $26.861M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$111 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202626,861,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9d073d90-92b4-40cf-a86f-5e3464840cdb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management maintained FY 2026 revenue guidance of $108-114 million, reflecting about 25% growth over 2025's $86 million revenue guidance. Actual revenue grew from $37.976 million in first half 2025 to $52.416 million in first half 2026, supporting the growth trajectory. The company is delivering on this revenue growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Quarterly revenue grows to at least $25.5 million by 2026-Q1	A supporting condition in Biodesix Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $25.55 million.	Intact	Quarterly revenue falls below $20 million in 2026-Q1	Revenue: $26.861M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $25.55 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 5, 202626,861,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9d073d90-92b4-40cf-a86f-5e3464840cdb. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-1.67

$-1.77 → $-1.67 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.13B

$0.13B → $0.13B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-07-26	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-07-27	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-07-30	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-07-31	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$-1.77	$132,810,442	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$-1.77	$132,810,442	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$-1.77	$132,796,140	7 / 7
2026-08-07	$-1.62	$134,015,729	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$-1.65	$133,778,830	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$-1.65	$133,778,830	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$-1.65	$133,778,830	7 / 6
2026-08-11	$-1.67	$134,328,570	7 / 7
2026-08-12	$-1.67	$134,628,570	7 / 7
2026-08-13	$-1.67	$134,628,570	7 / 7
2026-08-14	$-1.62	$134,015,729	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$-1.62	$134,015,729	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$-1.62	$134,015,729	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$-1.62	$134,015,729	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$-1.62	$134,015,729	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$-1.62	$134,015,729	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$-1.62	$134,015,729	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$-1.67	$134,621,826	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$-1.67	$134,617,540	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$-1.67	$134,617,543	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$-1.67	$134,624,286	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$-1.67	$134,624,286	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$-1.67	$134,624,286	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$-1.67	$134,624,286	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	0	0
2026-06-01	7	0	0
2026-07-01	7	0	0
2026-08-01	7	0	0
2026-09-01	7	0	0
2026-10-01	7	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

H.C. WainwrightSep 25 · prior Jun 15

$26.00 → $38.00+46.2%

$0$20.90$41.80

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA positivity by end of 2025Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches about $111 million in FY 2026Revenue: $26.861M
Quarterly revenue grows to at least $25.5 million by 2026-Q1Revenue: $26.861M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Biodesix Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. Its multi-year view rests on strong diagnostic testing growth and improving operating efficiency, while the current thesis remains on watch.

What's priced into Biodesix Inc

The evidence describes BDSX as cheap versus peers, with no valuation fragility gates triggered, but confidence in that assessment is low. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market may already reflect demanding assumptions despite the low relative valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and diagnostic volumes are tracking well: first-half revenue rose, and second-quarter diagnostic testing revenue and test volumes grew strongly. Adjusted EBITDA losses have narrowed, but profitability is not yet established; recent performance remains below the industry cohort, and the risk label has risen to high.

What Biodesix Inc hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue and testing growth alongside further progress toward adjusted EBITDA profitability. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while weaker jobs data could weigh on cyclical and healthcare names; continued earnings strength from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.