Reading AWK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AWK free→Reading AWK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AWK free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $126.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $127 AWK trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $116 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $124–$140. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 9% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.58 → $1.59 (+0.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 23% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.4% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$222.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,607.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Affirming the EPS guidance signals confidence in growth and stability. It shows the company is on track to meet its targets.
Confirms:The company reaffirms its 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.
Disproves:The company revises down its 2026 EPS guidance below $6.02.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Seek rate adjustments
Dividend hike supports rate adjustment objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. Partial Settlement Agreement Filed in California-American Water Company (“Cal Am”) General Rate Case On June 8, 2026, Cal Am, a wholly owned subsidiary of American Water Works Company, Inc. (the “Company”), filed with the California Public Utilities Commission (the “CPUC”) a partial settlement agreement reached with the CPUC’s Public Advocates Office to determine the amount of incremental annualized water and wastewater revenue to be received by Cal Am in its general rate case f…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$124.00 – $140.00 (median $134.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Water Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AWK American Water Works | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | moderate |
WTRG Essential Utilities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AWR American States Water Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
CWT California Water Service Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | full | moderate |
HTO H2O America | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | fair | moderate |
37 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company continues to affirm its 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.
The company is actively seeking rate adjustments across multiple jurisdictions.
The company completed the acquisition of water and wastewater system assets from Nexus Regulated Utilities.
Why it matters: Adjusting rates can help make more money and support growth. It shows the company can cover costs and invest in infrastructure.
Confirms:Rate adjustments are approved. This leads to more money each year.
Disproves:Rate adjustments are denied or cut back a lot.
Advances: Seek rate adjustments
Rate hike filing aligns with regulatory objectives.
Advances: Announce acquisition
Acquisition of wastewater plant supports capital allocation.
Other Events. Completion of Acquisition of Certain Water and Wastewater System Assets from Nexus Regulated Utilities, LLC On June 1, 2026, American Water Works Company, Inc. (the “Company”) completed the previously announced acquisition from Nexus Regulated Utilities, LLC (the “Seller”) of equity interests in specified entities (collectively, the “Acquired Entities”) that own regulated water and wastewater system assets located in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvani…
Other Events. On May 18, 2026, American Water Capital Corp. (“AWCC”), a wholly owned finance subsidiary of American Water Works Company, Inc. (“American Water”), agreed to sell $500 million aggregate principal amount of its 4.625% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “Notes”) pursuant to an underwriting agreement, dated May 18, 2026, by and among AWCC and American Water, and BofA Securities, Inc., RBC Capital Markets, LLC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters n…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) The following with respect to certain compensatory plans and arrangements of American Water Works Company, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), was approved by shareholders of the Company at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”) held on May 13, 2026. Amendment and Restatement of American Water Works Compan…
Other Events. Filing of Rate Request with the Kentucky Public Service Commission (the “KPSC”) by Kentucky-American Water Company (“Kentucky American Water”) On May 15, 2026, Kentucky American Water, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, announced that it filed a request with the KPSC to adjust its water rates. As filed, the request seeks aggregate annualized incremental revenues of $17.7 million. Kentucky American Water intends to put interim rates into effect beginning on December 16, 20…