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NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$126.87+0.44%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 9% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Water
- Market cap
- $24.67B
- Employees
- 7,000
- IPO date
- 2007-08-27
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $126.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$116.01consensus
Range $105.66 – $136.37
vs price: +9% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$164.86consensus
Range $154.00 – $197.18
vs price: -23% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $127 AWK trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $116 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $124–$140. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
22.4x
peer 20.5x · own history 26.2x
Premium
1.1x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
9%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$116.44
range $107.99 – $136.73
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 9% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Compared to peers
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
44th pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.84x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
35th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish1 positive, 1 negative material events / 30dfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.58 → $1.59 (+0.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 23% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.4% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$108.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$222.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,607.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for 2026 EPS guidance affirmation
Why it matters: Affirming the EPS guidance signals confidence in growth and stability. It shows the company is on track to meet its targets.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company reaffirms its 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12.
Disproves:The company revises down its 2026 EPS guidance below $6.02.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-134d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Seek rate adjustments
Dividend hike supports rate adjustment objectives.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in the Utilities sector.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for AWK and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like WTRG, AWR, and CWT keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting AWK and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AWK raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-09), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AWK cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-09), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like WTRG, AWR, and CWT start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping AWK and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-098d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. Partial Settlement Agreement Filed in California-American Water Company (“Cal Am”) General Rate Case On June 8, 2026, Cal Am, a wholly owned subsidiary of American Water Works Company, Inc. (the “Company”), filed with the California Public Utilities Commission (the “CPUC”) a partial settlement agreement reached with the CPUC’s Public Advocates Office to determine the amount of incremental annualized water and wastewater revenue to be received by Cal Am in its general rate case f…
Legal / regulatorynegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.