American Water Works (AWK)

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-10-15

$134.94+1.43%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge American Water Works’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.59 → 6.59 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital investment plan of $3.7 billion in 2026	A supporting condition in American Water Works's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.7 billion USD.	Intact	Capital investment falls below $3.2 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company plans to invest approximately $3.7 billion in 2026, with $652 million invested in 2026-Q1 and $1.8 billion invested in the first six months of 2026, showing progress toward the full-year target. The trajectory is delivering consistent capital deployment to support infrastructure and growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Adjusted EPS in range $6.02 to $6.12 for 2026	A primary condition in American Water Works's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.02 USD per share.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EPS falls below $6.02 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company has consistently affirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $6.02 to $6.12 and long-term EPS and dividend growth targets of 7-9%. Adjusted EPS guidance compares to 2025 adjusted EPS of $5.64, indicating management is delivering on growth expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Complete merger with Essential Utilities by Q1 2027	A supporting condition in American Water Works's published investment case. The stated target is Merger closed by end of Q1 2027.	Intact	Merger not completed by end of Q1 2027	Merger on track vs Q1 2027 target Q2 2026 earnings slides state merger is on track; recent filings support merger progress. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 5 quarters. Management has consistently reported progress on the merger with Essential Utilities, including regulatory approvals in three states and settlement in Texas. The merger is expected to close by Q1 2027, with integration planning ongoing, indicating steady progress toward completion. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Total annualized revenue requests of $518 million in 2026	A primary condition in American Water Works's published investment case. The stated target is >=518 million USD annualized revenue requests.	Intact	Annualized revenue requests fall below $346 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. The company has secured authorized additional annualized revenues increasing from $89 million in 2026-Q1 to $216 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting active regulatory rate case progress. The number of jurisdictions with rate cases in progress increased from 5 to 6, indicating ongoing regulatory efforts supporting revenue growth. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$6.59

$6.57 → $6.59 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.77B

$5.75B → $5.77B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.57	$5,752,138,310	10 / 9
2026-07-25	$6.57	$5,752,249,420	10 / 9
2026-07-26	$6.57	$5,752,249,420	10 / 9
2026-07-27	$6.57	$5,752,249,420	10 / 9
2026-07-28	$6.57	$5,752,249,420	10 / 9
2026-07-29	$6.57	$5,752,249,420	10 / 9
2026-07-30	$6.57	$5,752,249,420	10 / 9
2026-07-31	$6.57	$5,752,249,420	10 / 9
2026-08-01	$6.57	$5,752,249,420	10 / 9
2026-08-02	$6.57	$5,756,582,750	10 / 9
2026-08-03	$6.57	$5,756,582,750	10 / 9
2026-08-04	$6.57	$5,756,582,750	10 / 9
2026-08-05	$6.57	$5,756,582,750	10 / 9
2026-08-06	$6.57	$5,756,582,750	10 / 9
2026-08-07	$6.57	$5,753,996,261	9 / 7
2026-08-08	$6.57	$5,757,027,190	10 / 9
2026-08-09	$6.57	$5,757,027,190	10 / 9
2026-08-10	$6.57	$5,757,027,190	10 / 9
2026-08-11	$6.57	$5,753,996,261	9 / 7
2026-08-12	$6.57	$5,757,027,190	10 / 9
2026-08-13	$6.57	$5,757,027,190	10 / 9
2026-08-14	$6.57	$5,753,996,261	9 / 7
2026-08-15	$6.57	$5,753,996,261	9 / 7
2026-08-16	$6.57	$5,753,996,261	9 / 7
2026-08-17	$6.57	$5,753,996,261	9 / 7
2026-08-18	$6.57	$5,753,996,261	9 / 7
2026-08-19	$6.57	$5,753,996,261	9 / 7
2026-08-20	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-21	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-22	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-23	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-24	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-25	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-26	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-27	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-28	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-29	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-30	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-08-31	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-09-01	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-09-02	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-09-03	$6.59	$5,754,440,705	9 / 7
2026-09-04	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-05	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-06	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-07	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-08	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-09	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-10	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-11	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-12	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-13	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-14	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-15	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-16	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-17	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-18	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-19	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-20	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-21	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-22	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-23	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-24	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-25	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-26	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-27	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-28	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-29	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-09-30	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-10-01	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-10-02	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-10-03	$6.59	$5,769,389,356	9 / 7
2026-10-04	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-05	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-06	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-07	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-08	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-09	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-10	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-11	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-12	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-13	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-14	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7
2026-10-15	$6.59	$5,769,167,133	9 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	10	1
2026-06-01	3	9	1
2026-07-01	3	9	1
2026-08-01	3	9	1
2026-09-01	3	9	1
2026-10-01	3	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital investment plan of $3.7 billion in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted EPS in range $6.02 to $6.12 for 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Total annualized revenue requests of $518 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-15.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

American Water Works outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a utility investment with a focus on steady growth and income. The current thesis state reflects a mixed outlook due to sector challenges and management's volatile execution.

What's priced into American Water Works

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation for AWK, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is a small expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic or pessimistic about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has reaffirmed its 2026 earnings guidance and is actively pursuing regulatory rate adjustments to support revenue growth. However, there is a mixed execution on capital investments, which could impact future performance.

What American Water Works hinges on

Key factors for the thesis include the potential for favorable interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector peers. Additionally, any negative guidance from management could significantly impact investor sentiment.