Reading CDZI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CDZI free→Reading CDZI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CDZI free→NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CDZI is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 394% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.78. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.86, CDZI's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 14× p/s (5.2× the 3× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~422% near-term growth vs our ~-10% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.74 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 422% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.63x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.10 → $-0.10 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$244.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$581.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,422.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If utilities sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Cadiz's outlook.
Confirms:Utilities sector revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays below 6% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CDZI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 20, 2026, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Cadiz Inc. (the "Company") posted on the Company’s website at www.cadizinc.com a letter to shareholders providing certain updates regarding the Company’s business and business plans. The shareholder letter is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1. The information disclosed under this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purpos…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Water Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CDZI Cadiz, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
AWK American Water Works | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | moderate |
WTRG Essential Utilities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AWR American States Water Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
CWT California Water Service Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (d) On February 3, 2026, the Cadiz Inc. (the “Company”) Board of Directors (the “Board”) appointed Dave O’Hara as a new member of the Board, filling an existing vacancy on the Board. Mr. Dave O’Hara is a senior finance executive with extensive experience in corporate finance, commercial strategy and large-scale growth initiatives. He is presently on…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 27, 2025 (the "Effective Date"), Cadiz Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a definitive agreement (the “Agreement”) with Lytton Rancheria of California, a federally recognized Native American tribe (“Lytton”), pursuant to which Lytton will provide the first tranche of capital (the “Tribal Investment”) for construction of the Mojave Groundwater Bank project, the Company’s water supply and groundwater banking project in the eastern Mojave Des…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information included in
Other Events. In connection with the filing of the Prospectus Supplement, the Company is filing a legal opinion of its counsel, Norton Rose Fulbright US LLP, relating to the validity of the issuance and sale of the Commitment Fee Shares and Funding Fee Shares (each as defined in