Reading AWR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AWR free→Reading AWR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AWR free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating that cash flow does not strongly back reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, while risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 33% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from AWR and the performance of sector bellwethers like AWK, WTRG, and CWT. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $78 AWR trades at 23× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $57 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 35% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.92x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.93. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$80.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$198.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,155.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growing EPS shows strong performance in AWR's utility segments.
Confirms:Q2 diluted earnings per share reported above $0.76.
Disproves:Q2 diluted earnings per share reported below $0.74.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AWR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 19, 2026, shareholders approved the 2026 Stock Incentive Plan (the “Plan”). The Plan replaces the Company’s 2016 Stock Incentive Plan and enables the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of American States Water Company to continue to make stock awards to eligible employees in a manner consistent with the Company’s current compens…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Water Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AWR American States Water Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
AWK American Water Works | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | moderate |
WTRG Essential Utilities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CWT California Water Service Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | full | moderate |
HTO H2O America | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | fair | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Utilities names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing the EPS contribution from the contracted services business.
Continue to invest within the projected CAPEX range of $185 to $225 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Staying within the $185 to $225 million range shows AWR's commitment to growth and infrastructure.
Confirms:Q2 spending on capital projects is between $185 million and $225 million.
Disproves:Q2 spending on capital projects is under $185 million.
Why it matters: Fluctuations in supply costs can impact earnings due to the new cost balancing account.
Confirms one read:Water supply costs increase less than $5 million compared to Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:Water supply costs increase more than $10 million compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A strong contribution would show progress in AWR's goal to grow this segment's earnings.
Confirms:Q2 earnings from contracted services are over $0.17 per share.
Disproves:Contracted services EPS contribution for Q2 falls below $0.15 per share.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026 , American States Water Company (NYSE:AWR) released earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by refe…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 26, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors approved the 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program (the “Bonus Program”) for the executive officers (the “Executive Officers”) of American States Water Company (NYSE:AWR). Under the terms of the Bonus Program, each of the Executive Officers is eligible to earn an objective cash bon…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 20, 2026, American States Water Company (the “Company”) entered into an amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Equity Distribution Agreement, dated February 27, 2024 (the “Original Equity Distribution Agreement” and, together with the Amendment, the “Equity Distribution Agreement”), by and among the Company and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC (“Wells Fargo”), Janney Montgomery Scott LLC (“JMS”), RBC Capital Markets, LLC (“RBC”), and Siebert Will…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 18, 2026 , American States Water Company (NYSE:AWR) released earnings for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporat…