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York Water Co. (The) (YORW)
NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$29.84-0.40%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Utilities - Regulated Water
- Market cap
- $485.63M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-05-10
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-11
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$23.48consensus
Range $17.82 – $27.98
vs price: +27% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$17.89consensus
Range $17.89 – $17.89
vs price: +67% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $30 YORW trades at 20× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.3x
peer 19.0x · own history —
Premium
1.1x peer
Growth the price needs
27%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$23.58
range $17.87 – $27.98
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 27% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
52nd pctl · Utilities
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated fragile grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
12th pctl · Utilities
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the US dollar and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
- the US dollar: This stock tends to fall when the dollar strengthens.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish1 analysts, 0% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.41 → $0.40 (-2.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: utilities is in maturing, with stable trajectory (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/data-center-power.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-15
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$217.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,393.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth to speed up again.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the utility sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
Sector context
as of 2026-06-15
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for YORW yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for faster revenue growth in the Utilities sector.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for YORW and other Utilities names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like AWK, WTRG, and AWR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Utilities sector momentum should keep lifting YORW and other Utilities names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If YORW raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If YORW cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like AWK, WTRG, and AWR start missing or guiding lower, the Utilities tailwind helping YORW and other Utilities names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, The York Water Company issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 financial results. The press release is being furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated herein by reference. This report (including the exhibit) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be incorporated by reference in an…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.