Reading GWRS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GWRS free→Reading GWRS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GWRS free→NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 100% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.88, GWRS's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 63× p/e (3.3× the 19× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~100% near-term growth vs our ~7% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $3.86 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 100% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated weak grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=906).
Over the trailing year it converted 8.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated robust grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=832).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.03 → $0.03 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$111.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$373.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,816.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The utilities sector is maturing. If revenue growth picks up, it could benefit GWRS.
Confirms:Utilities sector revenue growth is speeding up toward its past highs.
Disproves:Revenue growth keeps slowing. This shows the sector still faces challenges.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Price target cut indicates market concerns about performance.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026 , Global Water Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the year ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exch…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Water Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GWRS Global Water Resources, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 12 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
AWK American Water Works | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | moderate |
WTRG Essential Utilities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AWR American States Water Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CWT California Water Service Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | full | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on obtaining appropriate rate increases and organic growth to sustain revenue and earnings growth.
Engage in strategic agreements to support business operations and growth.
File rate case applications to increase water and wastewater rates with the Arizona Corporation Commission.
Advances: Maintain solid revenue and earnings growth
Earnings miss but highlights growth potential, supporting revenue goals.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed, on April 30, 2020, Global Water Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an agreement (as subsequently amended, the “Loan Agreement”) with The Northern Trust Company, an Illinois banking corporation (“Northern Trust”), for a revolving line of credit that currently provides the Company up to a maximum of $20.0 million principal amount for borrowing. On April 30, 2026 , the Company and Northern Trust entered into the seven…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously reported, on March 5, 2025, two of the regulated subsidiaries of Global Water Resources, Inc. (the “Company”), Global Water – Santa Cruz Water Company, Inc. (“GW-Santa Cruz”) and Global Water – Palo Verde Utilities Company, Inc. (“GW-Palo Verde”), each filed a rate case application and related schedules with the Arizona Corporation Commission (the “ACC”) for, among other things, increased water and wastewater rates, respectively. Addit…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information required by this
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 4, 2026 , Global Water Resources, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “…