Reading WTRG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WTRG free→Reading WTRG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WTRG free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated WaterSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If WTRG cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.92. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 WTRG trades at 19× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $38 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 2% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.93x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.40 → $0.41 (+1.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$98.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$217.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,297.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Investing in infrastructure can make services more reliable. It can also increase future revenue.
Confirms:At least 75% of the $1.7 billion in infrastructure investments must be done by year-end.
Disproves:Less than 50% of the planned infrastructure investments must be done by year-end.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WTRG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 6, 2026, Essential Utilities, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Water Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WTRG Essential Utilities | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AWK American Water Works | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | moderate |
AWR American States Water Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
CWT California Water Service Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 5 of 100 | full | moderate |
HTO H2O America | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Utilities names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing revenue by acquiring water and wastewater systems.
Continue to increase dividends, reflecting strong financial performance.
Focus on improving operational efficiency to reduce costs and increase profitability.
Why it matters: New acquisitions could raise revenue and match management's growth goals.
Confirms:A press release about a new acquisition that may raise revenue.
Disproves:No acquisitions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Confirms:Revenue growth accelerates to above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows that a company is healthy. It also shows care for shareholders.
Confirms:News of a dividend increase or a promise of dividend growth.
Disproves:No dividend increase announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better efficiency helps make more money. If the company improves, it may help recent income drops.
Confirms:Operating income increases from $310.6M in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income decreases further from $310.6M in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Growing dividends shows the company cares about its shareholders. It also shows good financial health.
Confirms:Dividend per share increases from $0.3426 in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Dividend per share remains the same or decreases from $0.3426 in Q1 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 9, 2026, Essential Utilities, Inc. (the “Company”) issued $500,000,000 principal amount of its 5.125% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Notes were issued pursuant to the indenture, dated as of April 23, 2019 (the “Base Indenture”), as supplemented by the First Supplemental Indenture, dated as of April 23, 2019 (the “First Supplemental Indenture”), and the Tenth Supplemental Indenture, dated as of March 9, 2026 (the “Tenth Supplementa…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Essential Utilities, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended and year ended December 31, 2025. The full text of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Other Events. In connection with the offering (the “Offering”) of the Notes, the Company entered into an underwriting agreement, dated March 5, 2026 (the “Underwriting Agreement”), with Barclays Capital Inc., PNC Capital Markets LLC and RBC Capital Markets, LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”). The Underwriting Agreement includes customary representations, warranties and covenants by the Company. Under the terms of the Underwriting Agreement,…