Essential Utilities (WTRG)

Q: What's priced into Essential Utilities (WTRG) stock?

The valuation evidence points to WTRG being cheap versus peers, with the model showing a modest expectations gap and pricing marked as justified. That leaves some room for execution concerns to be recognized, but the evidence does not show that all business risks are reflected in valuation.

Q: What does the Essential Utilities (WTRG) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year view depends in part on completing the American Water merger by Q1 2027 and sustaining the planned infrastructure investment. Near-term risks include a guidance cut; potential supports include lower interest rates and continued strong results from other water utilities.

NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-10-23

$43.11-0.44%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Essential Utilities’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.35 → 2.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	737.33M
EPS	—	0.707
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.54B
EPS	—	2.232
Eps growth	5%–7%	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.7B
EPS	—	2.358

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditure near $1.7 billion in FY 2026	It keeps investing steadily with capital expenditures around $1.7 billion.	Intact	CAPEX falls significantly below $1.7 billion in FY 2026	Capital expenditures: $374.714M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: about 1700 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026374,714,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS at or above $2.07 in FY 2027	A primary condition in Essential Utilities's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.07 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $2.07 in FY 2027	Diluted EPS: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.07 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2b62068f-e106-465a-9d71-7421a14e8620. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 3.6% annually	A primary condition in Essential Utilities's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.6% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 3.6% next year	Revenue growth: 3.1% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 20263.097064 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2b62068f-e106-465a-9d71-7421a14e8620. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
PE ratio below peer median of 25.28	A supporting condition in Essential Utilities's published investment case. The stated target is <=25.28 PE.	Intact	PE ratio rises above peer median of 25.28	P/E (TTM): 21.45x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202621.4478 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: WTRG:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.36

$2.36 → $2.36 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-07-25	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-26	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-27	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-28	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-29	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-07-30	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-07-31	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-01	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-02	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-03	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-04	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-05	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-06	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 3
2026-08-08	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-09	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-10	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-12	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-13	$2.38	Unavailable	7 / 2
2026-08-14	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-15	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-16	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-17	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-18	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-19	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-20	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-21	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-22	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 3
2026-08-23	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-24	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-25	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-26	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-27	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-28	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-29	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-30	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-08-31	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-01	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-02	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-03	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-04	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-05	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-06	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-07	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-08	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-09	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-10	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-11	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-12	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-13	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-14	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-15	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-16	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-17	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-18	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-19	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-20	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-21	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-22	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-23	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-24	$2.35	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-25	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-26	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-27	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-28	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-29	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-09-30	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-01	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-02	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-03	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-04	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-05	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-06	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-07	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-08	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-09	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-10	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-11	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-12	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-13	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-14	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-15	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-16	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-17	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-18	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-19	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-20	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-21	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-22	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-23	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2
2026-10-24	$2.36	Unavailable	5 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	5	1
2026-06-01	2	4	1
2026-07-01	2	4	1
2026-08-01	2	4	2
2026-09-01	2	3	2
2026-10-01	2	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditure near $1.7 billion in FY 2026Capital expenditures: $374.714M
EPS at or above $2.07 in FY 2027Diluted EPS: $0.37 per share
Revenue growth at or above 3.6% annuallyPublished status: Broken
PE ratio below peer median of 25.28P/E (TTM): 21.45x

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-13.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Essential Utilities outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a regulated utility with a measured growth profile, rather than a high-growth business. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: merger progress and capital spending are on track, while earnings quality is fragile and confidence has eased to medium.

What's priced into Essential Utilities

The valuation evidence points to WTRG being cheap versus peers, with the model showing a modest expectations gap and pricing marked as justified. That leaves some room for execution concerns to be recognized, but the evidence does not show that all business risks are reflected in valuation.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results look neutral, but the company missed its most recent quarter and has a history of a deep miss. Management remains stable, with merger approvals and infrastructure spending on track; its 5% to 7% adjusted earnings-per-share growth goal through 2027 remains on watch given variability in reported results.

What Essential Utilities hinges on