Cadiz, Inc. (CDZI)

NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-10-23

$4.34+6.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cadiz, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	3.16M
EPS	—	-0.145
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	8.32M
EPS	—	-0.555
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	17.01M
EPS	—	-0.53

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash from operations from negative $5.5M in 2026-Q1	If cash burn improves from negative $5.5M in 2026-Q1, liquidity will strengthen.	Broken	cash flow remains below -$5M next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $-6.648M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: reduce negative cash flow to less than -$2M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026-6,648,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating income worsened from -$4.9M in 2025-Q3 to -$8.8M in 2026-Q2, net loss increased from -$7.1M to -$11.4M, and cash from operations remained negative at -$6.6M in 2026-Q2. Despite management focus, financials show limited progress in reducing losses or cash burn. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce net losses from negative $8.6M in 2026-Q1	Management targets robust baseline order growth and reducing net losses from negative $8.6M in 2026-Q1.	Broken	net losses worsen or remain below -$8M next 4 quarters	Net income: $-11.374M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net losses improve to less negative than -$5M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026-11,374,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 70d07f00-1dfb-432d-94bb-1be73935eb9e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve robust revenue growth near 82% in FY26	A primary condition in Cadiz, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=82% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 50% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management highlighted 74% growth in baseline orders in 2025 and expects robust growth to continue in 2026 and beyond. Revenue trends for ATEC are not separately reported, but the company reported record production and revenues in 2025. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated growth expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	0	0
2026-06-01	3	0	0
2026-07-01	3	0	0
2026-08-01	3	0	0
2026-09-01	3	0	0
2026-10-01	3	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operations from negative $5.5M in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Reduce net losses from negative $8.6M in 2026-Q1Published status: Broken
Achieve robust revenue growth near 82% in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cadiz, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth and infrastructure-development story, not an established earnings compounder. The thesis is on watch: baseline orders are growing, but losses and cash use remain high, and the major groundwater project is still in development.

What's priced into Cadiz, Inc.

CDZI is valued at a 24.32% premium to peers, while the model has low confidence and points to optionality as the main source of valuation divergence. The priced-in signal is unjustified, though fragility is rated low because the evidence does not show the full combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with a 67% estimated chance of a miss and a recent run of misses. Losses and negative operating cash flow have worsened, despite management's focus on reducing them. Over the multi-year view, baseline-order growth and record 2025 production and revenues are constructive, while Mojave Groundwater Bank financing and construction are early stage and are expected to take 24 to 36 months to reach full operation.

What Cadiz, Inc. hinges on

The next call matters: a guidance cut would add to concerns about execution, while continued order growth would support the operating story. The longer-term project case depends on financing and construction progress at Mojave. Near-term sector conditions also matter, including interest-rate changes and whether peer utilities maintain strong earnings and guidance.