Reading AVNW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVNW free→Reading AVNW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVNW free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, which may support growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 72% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $21 AVNW trades at 11× p/e, below its 39× p/e peer median. Our $76 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $20–$31. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 72% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.33x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.58 → $0.57 (-0.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 29.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$171.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$424.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,357.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a slowdown, impacting Aviat's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is below its median. This shows a possible slowdown.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is above its median. This means expansion may continue.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AVNW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026, Aviat Networks, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended March 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company also posted to its website an Investor Presentation with respect to its third quarter ended March 27, 2026. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purpo…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$20.00 – $31.00 (median $25.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVNW Aviat Networks, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 between $428 million and $440 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance was updated from $440-$460 million to $428-$440 million for fiscal 2026. Revenue for 2026-Q3 was $100.0 million, down from $111.5 million in 2026-Q2, indicating limited progress towards the lower end of the guidance range.
“The Company is updating its fiscal 2026 full year guidance to: Full year Revenue between $428 and $440 million.”
“The Company is leaving its fiscal 2026 full year guidance as previously stated: Full year Revenue between $440 and $460 million.”
Maintain adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026 between $35 million and $40 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was revised from $45-$55 million to $35-$40 million for fiscal 2026. Operating income for 2026-Q3 was $0.9 million, down from $7.3 million in 2026-Q2, indicating limited progress towards the guidance range.
“Full year Adjusted EBITDA between $35.0 and $40.0 million.”
Engage in M&A activity with a focus on tax benefit preservation.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Aviat Networks engaged in M&A activity by entering into Amendment No. 2 to the Amended and Restated Tax Benefit Preservation Plan. This indicates a strategic focus on preserving tax benefits through M&A, but no specific financial impact was disclosed this quarter.
“Aviat Networks entered into Amendment No. 2 to the Amended and Restated Tax Benefit Preservation Plan.”
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 27, 2026, Aviat Networks, Inc. (the “Company”) and Computershare Inc., as rights agent, entered into Amendment No. 2 to the Amended and Restated Tax Benefit Preservation Plan (the “Amendment”), which amended the Amended and Restated Tax Benefit Preservation Plan (the “Plan”), dated as of August 27, 2020 and amended on February 28, 2023. The Amendment, which the Company expects to submit to the Company’s stockholders for ratification at t…
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information included in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 3, 2026, Aviat Networks, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended December 26, 2025. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company also posted to its website an Investor Presentation with respect to its second quarter ended December 26, 2025. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed to be “fil…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Departure of Interim Chief Financial Officer; Appointment of New Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer Appointment of New Chief Financial Officer On December 3, 2025, Aviat Networks, Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Andrew C. Schmidt as the Company’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Schmidt’…
“Full year Adjusted EBITDA between $45.0 and $55.0 million.”