Reading AVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVA free→Reading AVA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVA free→NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some variability in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on whether AVA cuts guidance on the next call, as that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $40.99. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $41 AVA trades at 16× p/e, below its 19× p/e peer median. Our $50 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $39–$42. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1203).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.25x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Utilities names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1075).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.27 → $0.26 (-1.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -2.9% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$88.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$184.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $985.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Updates on bond issuance can show financial health and funds for growth.
Confirms:Avista issues new bonds of at least $70 million to support capital projects.
Disproves:Avista delays or cancels bond issuances, which may show cash flow problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Threatens: Focus on M&A activity
Pausing negotiations may hinder M&A growth objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. See
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$39.00 – $42.00 (median $40.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Multi-Utilities.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVA Avista Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | fair | low |
NEE NextEra Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
SRE Sempra | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | fair | low |
D Dominion Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
XEL Xcel Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | fair | low |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Utilities names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to prioritize mergers and acquisitions as a strategic growth initiative.
Continue issuing bonds to support capital allocation and financial flexibility.
Maintain focus on increasing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On May 14, 2026, Avista Corporation (Avista Corp. or the Company) issued and sold $90.0 million of 4.77 percent first mortgage bonds due in 2029 and $70.0 million of 6.10 percent first mortgage bonds due in 2056 pursuant to a bond purchase agreement with institutional investors in the private placement market. The Company expects to issue and sell an additional $70.0 million of 6…
99.2 Slide presentation dated May 5, 2026, which is being furnished pursuant to Item 7.01 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as inline XBRL with applicable taxonomy extension information contained in Exhibits 101.) Note to Sections 2 and 7 – The information contained in Items 2.02 and 7.01, as well as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is “furnished” pursuant to General Instruction B2 to Form 8-K, shall not be considered “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1…
99.2 Slide presentation dated February 25, 2026, which is being furnished pursuant to Item 7.01 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as inline XBRL with applicable taxonomy extension information contained in Exhibits 101.) Note to Sections 2 and 7 – The information contained in Items 2.02 and 7.01, as well as Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is “furnished” pursuant to General Instruction B2 to Form 8-K, shall not be considered “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Ac…