Avista Corporation (AVA)

NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$37.69-0.13%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Avista Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.80 → 2.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	596.1M
EPS	—	0.811
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	2B
EPS	—	2.652
Capital expenditure	$585M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.05B
EPS	—	2.796

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Execute $615 million capital expenditures in 2026	Capital spending is $615 million.	Intact	Capital spend falls below $615 million in 2026	Capital expenditures: $176M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $615 million in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026176,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $314 million in first half of 2026, with $147 million in Q1 and $167 million additional in Q2. Management expects base capital expenditures of $615 million for 2026, increasing to $710 million by 2030. The trajectory shows disciplined and growing capital investment in utility assets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Meet 2026 non-GAAP utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72	The company has steady earnings and plans utility investments.	Under Pressure	EPS falls below $2.52 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management confirmed 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings guidance range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share consistently from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2. Net income showed growth from $79M in 2025-Q1 to $92M in 2026-Q1, with $35M in 2026-Q2. The trajectory matches management's guidance and is delivering on the earnings target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Resume M&A activity to support growth	A supporting condition in Avista Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is M&A negotiations resume within next 4 quarters.	Under Pressure	M&A remains paused beyond 1 year	M&A paused (Jun 2026) vs resume within 4 quarters June 2026 news confirms data center negotiations paused. May 2026 M&A agreement remains the last activity. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.80

$2.79 → $2.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$2.08B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.79	$2,075,012,800	7 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.79	$2,075,012,800	7 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.79	$2,075,012,800	7 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.79	$2,073,712,800	7 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.79	$2,073,712,800	7 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.79	$2,073,712,800	7 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-07-31	$2.79	$2,073,712,800	7 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.79	$2,073,712,800	7 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.79	$2,073,712,800	7 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.79	$2,073,712,800	7 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.79	$2,073,712,800	7 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.79	$2,073,712,800	7 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.79	$2,073,546,130	7 / 6
2026-08-07	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-08	$2.79	$2,076,479,460	7 / 6
2026-08-09	$2.79	$2,076,479,460	7 / 6
2026-08-10	$2.79	$2,076,479,460	7 / 6
2026-08-11	$2.79	$2,076,479,460	7 / 6
2026-08-12	$2.79	$2,076,479,460	7 / 6
2026-08-13	$2.79	$2,076,479,460	7 / 6
2026-08-14	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-15	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-16	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-17	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-18	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-19	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-20	$2.79	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-21	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-22	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-23	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-24	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-25	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-26	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-27	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-28	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-29	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-30	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-08-31	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-01	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-14	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-15	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-16	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-17	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-18	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-19	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-20	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-21	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-22	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-23	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-24	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-25	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-26	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-27	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-28	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-29	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-09-30	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-01	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-02	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-03	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-04	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-05	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-06	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-07	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-08	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-09	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-10	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-11	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-12	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-13	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-14	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-15	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-16	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-17	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-18	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-19	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-20	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-21	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-22	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-23	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4
2026-10-24	$2.80	Unavailable	5 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	5	1
2026-06-01	1	5	1
2026-07-01	1	5	1
2026-08-01	1	5	1
2026-09-01	1	5	1
2026-10-01	1	5	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 9 · prior Aug 4

$37.00 → $35.00-5.4%

$0$20.35$40.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Execute $615 million capital expenditures in 2026Capital expenditures: $176M
Meet 2026 non-GAAP utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72Published status: Under Pressure
Resume M&A activity to support growthPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-18.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Avista Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AVA is a regulated utility with a steady, capital-intensive earnings profile, rather than a high-growth business. Its long-term thesis is intact, with company momentum improving, but confidence is medium and recent financial performance is neutral.

What's priced into Avista Corporation

The evidence describes AVA as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 0.64 peer premium and a negative expectations gap of 0.24, so the valuation picture is mixed. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, and the muted reaction to recent results suggests the market has not strongly repriced the thesis.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, earnings delivery depends on management confirming and meeting its 2026 guidance, which has been reaffirmed and is currently on track. Capital spending and wildfire mitigation remain mixed execution areas, while recent earnings misses across AVA and peers add some risk despite a low stated miss probability.

What Avista Corporation hinges on

A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the thesis, while continued delivery would support it. Over the multi-year view, the setup also depends on whether lower interest rates and stronger results from sector peers provide support, and whether AVA manages rising utility investment and wildfire risks effectively.