Avista Corporation (AVA)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$37.40-0.56%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Meet 2026 non-GAAP utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72: H1 EPS $1.39 vs $2.52 target (55.2% achieved).
Avista aims for $2.62 EPS in 2026. Capital spending is $615 million. The company has steady earnings and plans utility investments. It trades cheap versus peers.
M&A pauses may slow growth. Capital costs rose with new debt. Earnings could miss if costs rise more.
Price is about 10% below our fair value near $46. Analysts expect 5.5% revenue growth. We see value but risks remain.
Breaks if: Capital spend falls below $615 million in 2026
Maintain disciplined capital expenditures focused on utility investments with expected base capital spend of $615 million in 2026 and growth through 2030.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable utility with a focus on managing risks and capital expenditures. The current thesis state is mixed, reflecting a balance between recent performance and ongoing sector challenges.
The market appears to be pricing AVA as a cheap option compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap. The valuation suggests that while there is some fragility due to weak execution quality and a turbulent sector, it is not fully reflected in the current pricing.
Management is on track to deliver on its 2026 earnings guidance, with recent financial performance showing growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, especially given the company's history in a high-miss-rate industry.
Key factors include the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which could provide a favorable environment for utilities. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like SRE, AES, and UTL will be crucial for AVA's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the read on AVA. However, wildfires have impacted service, challenging wildfire risk mitigation efforts. This creates uncertainty around the company's operational readiness.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $314 million in first half of 2026, with $147 million in Q1 and $167 million additional in Q2. Management expects base capital expenditures of $615 million for 2026, increasing to $710 million by 2030. The trajectory shows disciplined and growing capital investment in utility assets.
“In the first half of 2026, Avista Utilities' capital expenditures were $314 million; expected base capital expenditures of $615 million for 2026.”
“In the first quarter of 2026, Avista Utilities' capital expenditures were $147 million; expected base capital expenditures of $615 million for 2026.”
“Expected base capital expenditures for 2026 are $585 million, increasing through 2030.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.52 in FY26
Breaks if: M&A remains paused beyond 1 year
Overall, AVA's fundamentals and management priorities suggest a cautious but stable outlook for the next 1 to 3 years. Not investment advice.