Reading AMSF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMSF free→Reading AMSF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMSF free→NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and any potential changes in interest rates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $31.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $31 the market pays 15× p/e — above the 11× p/e peer median but in line with its own 16× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $23 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 36% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.22x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.53 → $0.52 (-1.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$94.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$240.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,362.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation dimension changed, moving from expensive to full. The risk dimension is elevated, indicating a higher level of uncertainty. The earnings quality remains fragile, suggesting ongoing concerns about financial performance. The macro backdrop is also a headwind, which may impact the overall environment for the stock.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Growth in voluntary premiums shows strong demand. It also shows good business strategies.
Confirms:Voluntary premiums growth in Q2 exceeds 8% year over year.
Disproves:Voluntary premiums growth in Q2 falls below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMSF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 15, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of AMERISAFE, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Guillermo A. Ramos, age 56, as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective May 7, 2026. Since 2018, Mr. Ramos has served as Head of Finance Strategy and Senior Vice President for Hiscox US. From 2016 through 2018,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMSF Amerisafe, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing gross premiums written through strong new business production and premium retention.
Improve operating scale to enhance the underwriting expense ratio.
Drive growth in voluntary premiums through strong new business production and premium retention.
Why it matters: A lower combined ratio shows better underwriting results. It also means more profit.
Confirms:Net combined ratio in Q2 remains below 94%.
Disproves:Net combined ratio in Q2 exceeds 95%.
Why it matters: A better expense ratio means better cost control. It also shows improved efficiency.
Confirms:In Q2, the underwriting expense ratio drops below 29.5%.
Disproves:Underwriting expense ratio in Q2 worsens to above 30%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. On February 25, 2026, AMERISAFE, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing a quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share. A copy of the Company’s press release is attach…