Amerisafe, Inc. (AMSF)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$24.80-0.40%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Grow gross premiums written: rev +5.0% vs 5.6%.
Amerisafe grows premiums about 6% a year. Voluntary premiums rose 8.2% last quarter. Cost ratio improved slightly to 29.7%. The company keeps steady management and stable execution.
Premium growth may slow as analysts cut forecasts. Earnings missed twice recently. Cost improvements are small and may stall.
The price is about 49% above our fair value near $24. Analysts expect 5.6% revenue growth. We see growth risks and cost pressure not fully priced.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 5.6% next year
Breaks if: Expense ratio rises above 30% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cyclical play within the Financials sector. The current thesis is cautious, as recent earnings performance has been below industry peers, and the company is on watch due to a history of earnings misses.
The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility in AMSF's execution quality, but it remains relatively cheap compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that the market does not fully anticipate significant improvement in performance.
Management is focused on maintaining growth in gross premiums written, which has shown positive results. However, the mixed performance in increasing voluntary premiums and the elevated near-term risk of earnings misses could impact future results.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like FNF, FAF, and ACT, as their success could provide a tailwind for AMSF. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rates could significantly affect AMSF's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. AMSF's recent financial performance dropped from the robust half to the weak half of its sector. This change indicates a decline in the reasons to own the stock. The latest earnings beat does not offset this deterioration in standing.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve underwriting expense ratio through operating scale and expense discipline.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The underwriting expense ratio was 31.8% in 2026-Q2, slightly higher than 31.3% in 2025-Q2 due to nonrecurring prior-period write-offs. Management expects these to not recur, indicating mixed progress with some expense discipline but recent increase.
“Underwriting expense ratio was 31.8%, compared with 31.3% in the second quarter of 2025.”
“Underwriting expense ratio for the quarter was 29.7%, compared to 29.9% in the first quarter of 2025.”
“Underwriting expense ratio for the quarter was 29.2%, compared to 29.7% in the fourth quarter of 2024.”
Breaks if: Voluntary premiums growth falls below 5% next year
Grow voluntary premiums on policies through strong policy retention and new business production.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Voluntary premiums grew 10.2% in 2025 and increased 5.7% in 2026-Q2, supported by strong policy retention and new business. Management's focus on this growth area is reflected in consistent premium increases, indicating delivery.
“Voluntary premiums on policies written in the quarter increased 5.7%, driven by strong policy and premium retention.”
“Voluntary premiums on policies written in the quarter increased 8.2%, due to strong new business production and solid premium and policy retention.”
“Voluntary premiums and policy count each increased by 10.2% for the full year 2025.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMSF's trajectory will depend on both sector performance and management's ability to execute its priorities effectively. Not investment advice.