Reading AMRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMRC free→Reading AMRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMRC free→NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, and management's recent track record has been volatile. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AMRC trading below typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact AMRC's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.15. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 AMRC trades at 41× p/e, in line with its 35× p/e peer median. Our $46 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $36–$50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 39% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.27x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.20 (-0.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 45.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$238.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$655.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,448.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'cautious'.
As of June 15, 2026, the signal label changed to "cautious." Risk fell. Earnings quality remains fragile, and management is still considered volatile. The sector backdrop is a headwind, while recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: EPS guidance shows how much money the company makes. Meeting this range shows good performance.
Confirms:Q2 non-GAAP EPS reported between $1.06 and $1.28.
Disproves:Q2 non-GAAP EPS was less than $1.06. This means earnings are weaker.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMRC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 4, 2026, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”) of Ameresco, Inc. (the “Company”), the Company’s stockholders approved an amendment ("Plan Amendment") to the Ameresco, Inc. 2020 Equity Incentive Plan (the “2020 Equity Plan”) to increase the number of shares of common stock reserved for issuance under the 2020…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$36.00 – $50.00 (median $41.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-19
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction & Engineering.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMRC Ameresco, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 17 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
PWR Quanta Services | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 49 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FIX Comfort Systems USA | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
EME Emcor | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | full | moderate |
MTZ MasTec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ameresco aims to achieve revenue growth to $2.1 billion by the end of 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue in 2026-Q1 was $401.46 million, indicating progress towards the $2.1 billion target for 2026. However, the trajectory shows mixed results as revenue decreased from $525.99 million in 2025-Q3 to $401.46 million in 2026-Q1.
“The company is guiding revenue of $2.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $283 million.”
“we support our 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.9 billion.”
“we are pleased to reiterate our 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.9 billion.”
Ameresco plans to allocate capital expenditures between $300 million and $350 million in 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a capex guidance range of $300 million to $350 million for 2026. Financials do not yet provide specific capex figures for 2026, so progress towards this target is not yet measurable.
“Our expected capex is $300 million to $350 million.”
Ameresco has set a non-GAAP EPS guidance range of $1.06 to $1.28 for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has set a non-GAAP EPS guidance of $1.06 to $1.28 for 2026. However, diluted EPS was -0.35 in 2026-Q1, indicating a challenging start towards achieving the guidance range.
“Non-GAAP EPS $1.06 $1.28.”
“Non-GAAP EPS $0.70 $0.90.”
Why it matters: Capex is crucial for growth initiatives. Staying within this range shows good capital management.
Confirms:Capex reported between $300 million and $350 million for 2026.
Disproves:Capex was less than $300 million. This shows the company is not investing enough.
Why it matters: This growth is key to meeting the company's 2026 revenue goal. It shows if they are on track.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported at or above $500 million, indicating strong growth.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $450 million, showing weak growth.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. The information included in the Explanatory Note above is incorporated by reference herein. On the Closing Date, pursuant to the Contribution Agreement, the Joint Venture, AMRC Biogas HoldCo and JV Investor entered into an amended and restated limited liability company agreement of the Joint Venture (the “JV Agreement”). A summary of the material terms of the JV Agreement, including with respect to quarterly and liquidating distributions, AMRC Bioga…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. The information contained in the Explanatory Note to this Current Report on Form 8-K, is incorporated herein by reference into this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers In connection with the Closing of the JV Transaction, Mr. Bakas, who currently serves as President of Renewable Fuels of Ameresco will step down from this role at Ameresco and become the Chief Executive Officer of the Joint Venture. The information contained in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026 , the Company announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company also posted supplemental information with respect to its quarter ended March 31, 2026 results on the Investor Relations section of its website at www.ameresco.com. The press release and the supplemental information issued in connection with the announcement are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Rep…