Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
$22.80-4.72%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Ameresco aims to grow revenue to about $2.1 billion in 2026. Profit margins are expected near 17-18%. The company targets non-GAAP EPS between $1.06 and $1.28 for 2026. Recent strategic partnerships and acquisitions support growth prospects.
Revenue has declined recently, with Q1 2026 revenue down to $401 million from $526 million in Q3 2025. EPS was negative in Q1 2026 at -$0.35, showing a tough start to the year. The company faces volatile management and fragile quality amid sector headwinds.
The stock trades about 21% below our fair value near $33, reflecting justified caution. Analysts expect roughly 15% revenue growth, but the market prices in some risk given recent earnings misses and volatility.
Breaks if: Capex falls below $300M or exceeds $350M in 2026
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 15.5% in 2026
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.06 in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a fragile growth story with a volatile management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but it faces significant risks ahead.
The market currently prices AMRC at an expensive valuation compared to its peers. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may anticipate challenges ahead given the company's fragile earnings quality.
Management is focused on achieving full-year revenue and Adjusted EBITDA targets, with recent results showing strong growth. However, the company's earnings quality is fragile, and there is a high risk of missing guidance, especially given its smaller-cap status.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like PWR, FIX, and EME. Positive momentum in the Industrials sector could support AMRC, while any negative shifts could lead to downward pressure.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
The recent news cuts both ways. It is challenged by maintain non-gaap eps guidance of $1.15 to $1.35 for 2026. It is supported by achieve full-year 2026 revenue of $2.0b to $2.2b.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: annual revenue falls below $2.0 billion in 2026
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMRC's performance will depend on its execution and broader sector trends. Not investment advice.