Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)

NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-23

$18.53-2.88%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ameresco, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.67 → 1.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	645.1M
EPS	—	0.768
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$290.5M	2.13B
EPS	—	1.252
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.31B
EPS	—	1.677

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures between $300M and $350M in 2026	A supporting condition in Ameresco, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $300M to $350M.	Intact	Capex falls below $300M or exceeds $350M in 2026	Capital expenditures: $230.514M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $300M to $350M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026230,514,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin stays at or above 17%	A primary condition in Ameresco, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 17%.	Improving	gross margin falls below 15.5% in 2026	Gross margin: 17.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 17%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202617.713555 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 06686f4f-a295-44f3-934e-8c181b63c399. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Non-GAAP EPS between $1.06 and $1.28 in 2026	The company targets non-GAAP EPS between $1.06 and $1.28 for 2026.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.06 in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP EPS improved from a loss of $(0.33) in 2026-Q1 to $0.20 in 2026-Q2. Management increased full-year 2026 Non-GAAP EPS guidance to $1.15 to $1.35, reflecting progress toward this earnings target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $2.0 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Ameresco, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.0 billion.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $2.0 billion in 2026	Revenue: $515.464M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.0 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026515,464,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 06686f4f-a295-44f3-934e-8c181b63c399. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.68

$1.66 → $1.68 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.31B

$2.28B → $2.31B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-07-25	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-07-26	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-07-27	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-07-28	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-07-29	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-07-31	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-08-01	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-08-02	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-08-04	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-08-05	$1.66	$2,283,705,970	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$1.66	$2,293,913,800	11 / 12
2026-08-07	$1.77	$2,323,312,872	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$1.74	$2,316,728,470	11 / 12
2026-08-09	$1.74	$2,316,728,470	11 / 12
2026-08-10	$1.74	$2,316,728,470	11 / 12
2026-08-11	$1.74	$2,316,728,470	11 / 12
2026-08-12	$1.74	$2,316,728,470	11 / 12
2026-08-13	$1.74	$2,316,728,470	11 / 12
2026-08-14	$1.77	$2,323,312,872	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$1.77	$2,323,312,872	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$1.77	$2,323,312,872	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$1.77	$2,323,312,872	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$1.77	$2,323,312,872	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$1.77	$2,323,312,872	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$1.77	$2,323,312,872	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$1.70	$2,312,545,132	9 / 9
2026-08-22	$1.70	$2,312,545,132	9 / 9
2026-08-23	$1.70	$2,312,545,132	9 / 9
2026-08-24	$1.70	$2,312,545,132	9 / 9
2026-08-25	$1.70	$2,312,545,132	9 / 9
2026-08-26	$1.70	$2,312,545,132	9 / 9
2026-08-27	$1.70	$2,312,545,132	9 / 9
2026-08-28	$1.70	$2,312,545,132	9 / 9
2026-08-29	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-08-30	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-08-31	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-01	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-02	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-03	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-17	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-18	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-19	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-20	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-21	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-22	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-23	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-24	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-25	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-26	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-27	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-08	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-09	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-10	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-11	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-12	$1.67	$2,312,586,799	9 / 9
2026-10-13	$1.67	$2,312,628,466	9 / 9
2026-10-14	$1.67	$2,312,628,466	9 / 9
2026-10-15	$1.67	$2,312,628,941	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$1.68	$2,312,628,466	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$1.68	$2,312,628,466	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$1.68	$2,312,628,466	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$1.68	$2,312,628,466	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$1.68	$2,312,628,466	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$1.68	$2,312,628,466	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$1.68	$2,312,628,466	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$1.68	$2,312,628,466	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$1.68	$2,312,628,466	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	4
2026-06-01	8	4
2026-07-01	8	4
2026-08-01	9	4
2026-09-01	8	4
2026-10-01	8	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures between $300M and $350M in 2026Capital expenditures: $230.514M
Gross margin stays at or above 17%Gross margin: 17.71%
Non-GAAP EPS between $1.06 and $1.28 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches at least $2.0 billion in 2026Revenue: $515.464M

Next proof point

Nov 9, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ameresco, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AMRC is a higher-risk growth and execution story in a sector facing headwinds. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding up relative to its industry, but the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into Ameresco, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: AMRC is described as cheap versus peers, yet it carries a sizable premium to them and is rated expensive overall. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says the weakness in execution quality is already reflected to a limited degree. The evidence does not show that all business risks are priced in.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA rose year over year in the second quarter, and management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance ranges. That supports progress toward its stated targets, although the snapshot notes a recent quarterly miss and fragile earnings quality. CFO transitions, a high-risk sector backdrop, and mixed progress on the biofuels joint venture remain execution concerns.

What Ameresco, Inc. hinges on

The next test is whether AMRC maintains its reaffirmed revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance; a cut would be a meaningful negative. Over the multi-year view, progress in biofuels and consistent delivery matter, while earnings and guidance from sector peers PWR, FIX, and EME could either support or weaken the sector backdrop.