Reading AMPG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPG free→Reading AMPG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMPG free→NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $7.50, AMPG's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 12× p/s (3.5× the 3× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-19% near-term growth vs our ~98% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $9.24 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 98%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.47x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $-0.02 (-118.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$334.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$811.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,279.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a potential slowdown. This could worsen the company's weak status in a growing sector.
Confirms:AmpliTech's revenue growth reported below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the sector median.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMPG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, AmpliTech Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release indicating its unaudited results for the first quarter of 2026. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the Company’s press release dated May 13, 2026, attached as a exhibit hereto, on this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communications Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMPG AmpliTech Group Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | fair | high |
CSCO Cisco | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | full | moderate |
ANET Arista Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LITE Lumentum | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MSI Motorola Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
16 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to achieve at least $50 million in revenue during fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $5.35M in 2026-Q1, indicating a need for significant growth to meet the $50M target. The company expects revenue recognition to be more heavily weighted toward the second half of the year, suggesting limited progress so far.
“The Company continues to believe its full-year revenue guidance remains achievable.”
“The Company reaffirmed its expectation to deliver at least $50 million in revenue during fiscal year 2026.”
The company expects revenue recognition to be more heavily weighted toward the second half of the year.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has not yet achieved significant revenue growth, with 2026-Q1 revenue at $5.35M. Management's focus on second-half revenue recognition suggests a strategic shift to meet the full-year target, but progress remains to be seen.
“The Company expects revenue recognition to be more heavily weighted toward the second half of the year.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 10, 2026, pursuant to the recommendation of the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of AmpliTech Group, Inc. (the “Company”), the Board of Director approved the annual performance milestones to determine eligibility for, and the amount of, annual performance bonuses for the named executive officers of the Company for the fisca…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. A. On January 30, 2026, AmpliTech Group, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Executive Employment Agreement with the Company’s chief executive officer, president, and chief technical officer, Fawad Maqbool (the “Maqbool Employment Agreement”). The Maqbool Employment Agreement, with an effective date of October 1, 2025, is a for a period of three years from the effective date, subject to automatic one-year renewals. For his services, Mr. Maqbool wil…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The information contained in
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Registered Direct Offering Securities Purchase Agreement On January 26, 2026, AmpliTech Group, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with five institutional investors (the “Purchasers”) pursuant to which the Company agreed to sell in a registered direct offering (the “Offering”) 2,230,00 Units (“Units”) at $4.055 per Unit, with each Unit consisting of one share of common st…