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AmpliTech Group Inc (AMPG)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this week
$7.50-11.66%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's performance. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Communication Equipment
- Market cap
- $215.13M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2011-08-22
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $7.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$9.58consensus
Range $6.09 – $13.07
vs price: -22% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$7.67consensus
Range $4.87 – $10.47
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $7.50, AMPG's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 12× p/s (3.5× the 3× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-19% near-term growth vs our ~98% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $9.24 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
11.9x
peer 3.4x · own history —
Premium
3.5x peer
Growth the price needs
-19%
our forecast 98%
Our fair value
$9.24
range $5.70 – $12.78
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 19% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 98%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
11th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 1.47x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -118.2% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.11 → $-0.02 (-118.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/accelerated-compute.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$334.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$811.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,279.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for AmpliTech's revenue growth dropping below the sector median
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a potential slowdown. This could worsen the company's weak status in a growing sector.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:AmpliTech's revenue growth reported below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the sector median.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMPG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for AMPG and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, NOK, and LITE keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting AMPG and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If AMPG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If AMPG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-13), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CSCO, NOK, and LITE start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping AMPG and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-131mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, AmpliTech Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release indicating its unaudited results for the first quarter of 2026. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the Company’s press release dated May 13, 2026, attached as a exhibit hereto, on this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.