Reading AII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AII free→Reading AII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AII free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include the performance of sector bellwethers and any changes in interest rates. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.66. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 AII trades at 4× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $31 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 46% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.94x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.98 → $0.89 (-9.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$147.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$327.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,417.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt American Integrity's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median of 15% over the last three years.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median of 15%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AII yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AII American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | — | inexpensive | elevated |
CB Chubb Limited | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Continue to provide a consistent dividend payout to shareholders.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Dividend per share was $1.02 in 2026-Q1, consistent with the previous quarter. The company has maintained its dividend payout, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
“The Board declared a special cash dividend of $1.02 per share.”
“The Board declared a special cash dividend of $1.02 per share.”
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $62.03 million in 2025-Q3 to $90.93 million in 2026-Q1, showing a strong growth trajectory. The company is delivering on its revenue growth priority.
“Revenue increased to $90.93 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Revenue was $68.07 million in 2025-Q4.”
“Revenue was $62.03 million in 2025-Q3.”
Focus on improving operating income through efficiency and cost management.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was $27.26 million in 2026-Q1, down from $29.28 million in 2025-Q4 but up from $18.77 million in 2025-Q3. The company shows limited progress in enhancing operating income.
“Operating income was $27.26 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Operating income was $29.28 million in 2025-Q4.”
“Operating income was $18.77 million in 2025-Q3.”
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice on interest rates changes borrowing costs. This can affect insurance demand and profits.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: Retail sales data affects how people shop and their need for insurance. Strong sales can raise confidence.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease by more than 1% month over month.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Chief Financial Officer On March 31, 2026, Ben Lurie, the Chief Financial Officer of American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”), delivered notice to the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) of his voluntary resignation, effective as of April 6, 2026 (the “Transition Date”), from all officer, director and mana…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 furnished hereto, shall not be deemed “fil…
Other Events. On February 24, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a special cash dividend of $1.02 per share of common stock, par value $0.001 per share, of the Company. The dividend will be paid on March 30, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on March 16, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 4, 2025, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors of American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. (the “Company”) granted (i) 22,266 three-year time-based restricted stock units (“RSUs”) to Robert Ritchie, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer; (ii) 11,719 RSUs to Jon Ritchie, the Company’s President; (iii) 9,375 RSUs to David C…