NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-10-23
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|---|---|
| Quarter ending 2026-12-30 | ||
| Revenue | — | 218.47M |
| EPS | — | 1.02 |
| Annual ending 2026-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | — | 1.02B |
| EPS | — | 4.303 |
| Annual ending 2027-12-31 | ||
| Revenue | — | 1.08B |
| EPS | — | |
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $1.02 per share | It keeps paying a steady dividend of $1.02 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $1.00 | Dividend per share: $1.02 per share FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share = $1.02. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published May 14, 20261.02 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5473ac4f-fa86-4ee7-b897-a5c62741e80a. Source status: eligible. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates
FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AII is a small-cap insurance growth story, with recent performance strong and management stable. The thesis is intact this month, though earnings quality is neutral and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence describes AII as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. Fragility is low, and the evidence does not specify what earnings or growth expectations the market already assumes.
Near term, recent results and execution are strong: voluntary new policies grew 54% year over year in Q2 2026, and the combined ratio improved to 63.4% from 72.9% a year earlier. Reinsurance terms improved, but disciplined underwriting is assessed as mixed, and erratic earnings surprises plus the Financials sector headwind remain risks.
The multi-year view depends on continued policy growth and disciplined underwriting, including whether the improved reinsurance terms support profitability. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts could weigh on the sector, while continued strong results and guidance from CB, PGR, and TRV could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AII’s thesis rests on sustaining growth while managing underwriting and sector risks. Recent results are supportive, but the peer valuation comparison has low confidence and earnings remain uneven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management figures unavailable.
Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income near $27 million | Profit margins are stable near $27 million operating income in 2026-Q1. | Improving | operating income falls below $20 million | Operating income: $46.424M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $27 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 13, 202646,424,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 29% from $62M to $91M quarterly | A primary condition in American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=29% growth from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q1. | Intact | quarterly revenue growth falls below 20% YoY | Revenue growth: 54.59% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=29% growth from 2025-Q3 to 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 13, 202654.594021 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Measurement sourceconsolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 61756c88-a303-47ff-8390-29fcacbaa475. Source status: eligible. Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.01 | Unavailable | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Sep 26–Oct 25 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Sep 26, 2026–Oct 25, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.