Reading AGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGO free→Reading AGO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AGO free→NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If AGO cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $77.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $76 AGO trades at 9× p/e, below its 11× p/e peer median. Our $84 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.87x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.76 → $1.56 (-11.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 2 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$79.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$212.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,024.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Q2 results will show if the company meets its revenue guidance of $1.1 billion for 2026.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue is over $275 million. This shows progress toward the $1.1 billion goal.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue is under $250 million. This shows challenges in meeting the annual guidance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AGO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its first quarter 2026 results and the availability of its March 31, 2026 financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by reference herein.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Property & Casualty Insurance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CB Chubb Limited | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 68 of 100 | full | moderate |
PGR Progressive Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TRV Travelers Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | low |
ALL Allstate | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Financials names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing earnings per share and operating income per share.
Targeting total revenue of $1.1 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Continue to increase dividends per share over time.
Why it matters: Sector performance can affect AGO's stock since it is in the financials sector.
Confirms one read:Sector performance gets better, showing growth above the median revenue growth rate.
Confirms the other:Sector performance gets worse, with revenue growth falling below the median.
Why it matters: Keeping dividend growth shows strong capital use and good financial health.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase from the current level of $0.40 per share.
Disproves:No increase in dividends or a cut to the current dividend level.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted operating income per share helps management's goal to raise EPS.
Confirms:Adjusted operating income per share rises to $2.75 or more in Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted operating income per share stays below $2.50 in Q2.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On March 13, 2026, Stephen Donnarumma, the Chief Credit Officer of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (“AGL” and together with its subsidiaries, the “Company”), notified the Company of his decision to retire from his position, effective September 30, 2026. From October 1, 2026 until April 2, 2027, Mr. Donnarumma will continue to serve the Company as a senio…
Exhibit Number Description 99.1 Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. December 31, 2025 Consolidated Financial Statements (furnished) 99.2 Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd. December 31, 2025 Consolidated Financial Statements (furnished) 104.1 Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the und…
Exhibit Number Description 99.1 Assured Guaranty Inc. December 31, 202 5 Combined Financial Statements (furnished) 104.1 Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover page XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document 2 SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Assured Guaranty Ltd. By: /s/ BENJAMIN G. ROSENBLUM Name: Benjamin G. Rose…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Assured Guaranty Ltd. issued a press release reporting its results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 and the availability of its December 31, 2025 financial supplement. The press release and the financial supplement are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated by reference herein.